How will the corona pandemic continue in autumn? The Federal Government’s Expert Council has presented its eleventh opinion on this. It is entitled “Preparation for Autumn/Winter 2022/23”. The expert council has outlined three scenarios – with different conclusions.
The essentials in brief:
The Federal Government’s Corona Expert Council considers a return to the mask requirement indoors and an upper limit for events in autumn and winter to be conceivable. This emerges from the eleventh opinion of the Expert Council, which was published on Wednesday.
In the so-called “baseline scenario”, there will therefore be an “accumulated occurrence of infections and absences from work in the working population”. This wave will extend over a longer period of time than a normal flu wave. The loss of work could again necessitate “wide-spread measures of transmission protection” and “contact reduction”, it is said. The mask requirement and the upper limit at events are given as examples.
In addition, the expert council outlines a “most favorable scenario” in which a new, more harmless corona variant dominates, as well as an “unfavorable scenario” in which the health system is at risk of being overloaded.
In general, the Expert Council warns to prepare early for a possible new virus wave in winter. The federal and state governments should “systematically examine specific regulations and place them on a solid legal basis” in order to be able to react as quickly as possible, the authors write. A central office should “uniformly communicate” all existing regulations and recommendations, and that via all media channels. The rules should be “simple but binding” and a separate federal agency should be set up to counter false information. The experts also consider data collection, which should be expanded, and an increase in the vaccination rate to be key.
This ends the press conference.
4:08 p.m .: “We should now look positively into the future,” says Karagiannidis. In the summer there is an opportunity to catch up on some things that have been missed in the past. Blaming the past is wrong. The statement shows what can be worked on .
4:05 p.m .: Christian Karagiannidis points out that Germany must be able to switch to digital teaching quickly at all times. This is also essential with regard to any further pandemics.
4:02 p.m .: Again it’s about vaccination. The expert commission is “one hundred percent” behind the Stiko’s recommendation to vaccinate everyone from the age of five.
3:59 p.m .: In winter it will also be important to administer anti-viral drugs in therapy. These are highly effective and therefore a good tool to fight the pandemic in autumn/winter.
3:55 p.m .: There will certainly be a situation during the year in which there will be a high number of infections. Not only with Corona, but also with influenza. It therefore makes sense to continue pursuing the topic of masks indoors.
3:53 p.m .: Communicating the rules is important in order to achieve understanding and trust, explains Prof. Betsch. The bigger the differences, the harder it is to explain, according to the health communicator.
3:51 p.m .: Prof. Sander assumes that another vaccination campaign will be needed in the fall. “The fact that we can now scale back the measures is only thanks to the vaccination.”
3:49 p.m.: It is asked whether a fourth vaccination is recommended. According to Prof. Sander, that is not the task of the expert council. The Stiko currently recommends this for people over 70. “Of course, the immunity that has been built up decreases over time.”
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3.46 p.m .: Prof. Kroemer is asked whether lockdowns are necessary again. This is only the case – if at all – in the most unfavorable scenario.
3.45 p.m .: In the experts’ paper, “immunization” means immunization against severe disease progression, not against an infection.
3.42 p.m .: Digitization and communication are certainly the most important points, explains Prof. Kroemer.
3:39 p.m .: “The supply system in Germany has worked well in the last two years,” says Kroemer. Of course you can get better in one place or another – see digitization – but in principle the system is resilient.
3:37 p.m .: Prof. Kroemer makes it clear how important digitization is in healthcare. “The pandemic has made that clear, we have hope that fundamental things will now happen in this area.”
3.35 p.m .: In the next few months, the symptomatic cases in particular would have to be tested and observed. In the future, the main thing will be to be able to show exactly how many patients with corona and other viruses come to the clinics.
3:33 p.m .: The experts only recommend quarantine measures if there is a variant that is significantly more contagious. Then it has to be about gaining time. Otherwise, quarantine measures are no longer necessary.
3:32 p.m .: Prof. Sander is asked how dangerous the BA.5 variant is. “We count these as part of the “base scenario,” says the expert. So: a similar severity as before.
3.30 p.m .: Now the question and answer session is open. One is certain that the current statement will now be read “very, very extensively”, says Prof. Kroemer. This can also be implemented very quickly.
3:29 p.m .: Not only the health system has to be prepared, but also the population, concludes Prof. Betsch.
3:28 p.m .: The experts suggest making any corona rules as simple as possible and at the same time uniform. This makes it easier to explain and to implement.
3:26 p.m .: It is also about improving health communication. It must be clear quickly what an illness means and how you can protect yourself. “Multipliers are also important here”.
3:25 p.m .: Now it’s about the upcoming communication. This must be better in winter. Above all, political communication must explain what exactly is planned and what the goal is.
3:23 p.m.: “We need to know how many beds are available and occupied. And also how many nurses are at the bedside.” It is now a matter of presenting the data publicly.
3:22 p.m .: A good data basis is important. “We have to get away from the seven-day incidence and towards a digital overall picture,” warns the professor.
3:21 p.m .: “The whole thing is dynamic, it could be that we have to introduce containment measures again,” the expert warns. It’s also about preventing consequential damage.
3.20 p.m .: Now Prof. Christian Karagiannidis speaks. “The starting position is significantly better in the third autumn than in previous years,” he says. The majority of society is basic immunized.
3:18 p.m .: Finally the “worst case” scenario. Again, the health system is at risk of being overloaded. Measures to reduce contact and wear a mask are then important again.
3:16 p.m.: The second is the “baseline scenario”. There will be an “accumulated occurrence of infections and absences from work in the working population”, including in the critical infrastructure. This could again necessitate “wide-spread measures of transmission protection” and “contact reduction”. “This scenario is not very dissimilar to the current one,” says Sander.
3:14 p.m .: The favorable scenario means: A new, more harmless corona variant dominates. There is a barely noticeable impairment of health. A burden on the health system is very unlikely.
15.13. Uhr: According to Sander, the properties of the new virus variants cannot be reliably predicted. Three scenarios have therefore been predicted.
3:12 p.m .: After two years of the pandemic, society has a lower risk perception, according to Sander. That is “understandable”, especially in view of the lower burden of disease.
3.10 p.m .: There is currently a relatively low burden of illness, according to Sander. Despite the high number of cases, this is due to the vaccination. “The vaccinations work very well and protect against serious illnesses.”
3:09 p.m .: Now Prof. Sander, Head of Infectious Diseases at the Charité, speaks.
3:08 p.m .: Today’s statement represents recommendations that should be implemented promptly, according to Prof. Kroemer. All 19 members of the Expert Council agreed to this.
3:07 p.m .: According to Prof. Kroemer, the communication that has been worked out is decisive in all scenarios. The information of the population about the exact locations must also be uniform and clear.
3:05 p.m .: The experts have worked out three scenarios. A base case, a favorable scenario and an unfavorable scenario.
3:04 p.m .: It starts. Right at the beginning, Prof. Kroemer makes it clear: We don’t want to paint any bad pictures.” But: “The pandemic is not over, nobody knows what will happen in winter/autumn.”
The Federal Government’s Corona Expert Council considers a return to the mask requirement indoors and an upper limit for events in autumn and winter to be conceivable. This emerges from the eleventh statement by the Expert Council, which the experts will present in the afternoon.
Follow the press conference from 3 p.m. here in the live ticker.
