Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, the world public has been discussing Putin’s state of health. Many suspect Russia’s president is mentally ill or has cancer. The question arises: who will take over as head of state if Putin is suddenly no longer able to hold office or even dies? FOCUS Online about possible successors, power struggles in the Kremlin and the impact on the West.
Blood cancer? Parkinson’s? long covid? Wild rumors have been circulating about Vladimir Putin’s health since the start of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. In addition to possible clinical pictures, there is also speculation about other scenarios, such as the violent overthrow of the Kremlin regent.
With these considerations, the question inevitably resonates: what will actually happen if Putin drops dead tomorrow? Who will then take power in Russia? And what effects would that have on the Ukraine war, the relationship with the West and the entire political situation in the world?
On paper, the situation is clear: if Putin dies tomorrow, resigns or is removed from office, according to the Russian constitution, the prime minister will take over the government. A new president would have to be elected within three months. Hardly anyone, at least in the West, knows the name of the current Prime Minister: Mikhail Mishustin, 56-year-old civil servant, married, three sons, active player in the Night Hockey League (NHL), an amateur ice hockey league co-founded by Putin.
Until his appointment as Prime Minister in January 2020, Mishustin was head of the Russian tax authority for ten years, where he drove the digitization of the tax system. The doctor of economics ensured that the tax authorities can understand in real time where and when a customer is shopping, which makes it much easier for the state to record the taxes. The parade official is considered one of the figures Putin chose to secure his own power. It seems unthinkable that Mishustin could replace the Kremlin leader for a long time after his death.
“He is a capable technocrat, but without political power,” says Gerhard Mangott, political scientist and professor of international relations at the University of Innsbruck. Marina Henke, Professor of International Relations at the Hertie School Berlin, does not believe that Mischustin can assert himself either. “The scenario that Putin’s formal successor would actually take office is very unlikely.” In an interview with FOCUS Online, she said: “There is no clear successor, no crown prince. The whole system is geared solely towards Putin.”
The security expert believes that if someone close to Putin prepares to take power, there could be a stab and stab in the Kremlin.
In Putin’s head: the logic and arbitrariness of an autocrat
“It doesn’t matter who comes to power after Putin, most likely he doesn’t have enough support in the various security agencies, in the military and among the oligarchs,” says Marina Henke. All would be controversial and would have to fight for their position. “If someone from Putin’s current inner circle declares himself the new president, then someone else will say with certainty: it can’t be that you of all people are taking over now. Then there would be some kind of palace massacre.”
But who would even be eligible to succeed Putin? Several names have been circulating not only since the Ukraine war. FOCUS Online presents the five most important.
Political scientist Gerhard Mangott considers it unlikely “that Putin’s successor could settle accounts with him and his legacy” and is striving for an opening to the West. And he points out: “Putin’s resignation would remove an aggressive, authoritarian and distrustful president, but we can by no means be sure that an acceptable successor will take power.”
