The Russian ruble continues to steadily strengthen its position against the world’s leading currencies. According to the results of Wednesday’s trading, the dollar exchange rate on the Moscow Stock Exchange was fixed below the level of 73 rubles/$, having lost almost 60 kopecks since the beginning of the week. The main driver of the weakening of the US currency was the symposium of central banks, which ended last Friday. Contrary to analysts ‘fears, the head of the US Federal Reserve spoke quite mildly about the stimulus program, which supported investors’ demand for risky currencies.
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of analysts ‘ forecasts, nothing prevents the subsequent strengthening of the ruble This week, the main dynamics of the dollar/ruble exchange rate will be set by employment statistics from the United States. Note that in the case of stability both at the macro level and on the oil market, we can expect the ruble to test the 73 mark. In general, nothing prevents the subsequent strengthening of the ruble — on the contrary, we are looking at a possible increase in the Central Bank’s key rate, which can also strengthen the domestic currency. As part of the current week, we are looking at finding the ruble in our new range of 72.5–74.5 rubles/$.The factor of moderate support for the national currency was the positive dynamics of the ruble debt market. The ruble, like other currencies of developing countries, is favored by the local retreat of the dollar against the main currencies. Another factor of moderate support for the national currency was the positive dynamics of the ruble debt market (the RGBI index of Russian government bonds is approaching 145 p.). If we assume in the short term the preservation of current price levels in oil and a calm geopolitical background, the dollar-ruble pair can end the current week within the range of 72.5-74.Local markets are waiting for a meeting of relevant OPEC ministers+The focus remains on Friday’s publication of data on the US labor market, which may affect the Fed’s further steps to change policy, including helping to determine the timing of the completion of stimulus programs. Local markets are waiting for a meeting of the relevant OPEC+ ministers, following which the volumes of raw materials supplies to global markets will be announced. This will affect the oil prices that are important for the ruble and ruble assets.
