The U.S. economy saw a surge in job growth last month despite an increase in COVID-19-related cases and a shortage workers. This was likely due to the fact that it rebounded with surprising energy from last year’s coronavirus shut down.
According to FactSet’s survey of economists, Friday’s Labor Department July Jobs Report will show that the United States added 860,000 more jobs than June’s 850,000.
Oxford Economics’ Lydia Boussour, an economist, expects even more — 1.02 Million — partly due to seasonal factors that will increase the number of people hired to teach in public schools and work at restaurants and hotels.
FactSet reports that economists expect the unemployment rate to drop to 5.7%, down from 5.9% in June.
Last spring’s coronavirus caused a temporary but severe recession. Businesses were forced to close down, and consumers had to stay home for their own safety. In March and April 2020, the economy lost 22 million jobs. It has since recovered almost 16 million jobs, which is a 6.8million shortfall in comparison to February 2020.
Businesses have been able to reopen after receiving vaccines, and people are able to go back to the bars, restaurants, and shops they used to avoid for many months following the pandemic. Because of the lockdowns, many Americans are in good financial health. They were able to save money and receive relief checks from their banks.
The economy has responded with surprising speed. According to the International Monetary Fund, the U.S. gross national product (the broadest measure of economic output) will grow by 7% this year. This is its fastest rate since 1984.
Employers advertise jobs faster than applicants — 9.2 million in May — and they are doing it faster than applicants.
Businesses blame the generous federal unemployment benefits, which include an additional $300 per week to regular state jobless assistance, for keeping Americans from looking for work. Many states have ended federal unemployment assistance, even though it was due to end nationwide on Sept. 6.
Many Americans are staying away from the job market due to lingering health concerns and difficulty obtaining childcare during a time of many schools being closed.
Another problem is that many of the people who were evicted by the recession’s coronavirus can’t return to their jobs.
Rubela Farooqi is the chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics. She notes that approximately 80,000 restaurants have shut down since March 2020. These workers need to find new jobs and new employers.
Farooqi stated in a research report that “Matching unemployed to job openings” will likely take longer because it will be difficult for them to find a job in the future.
Farooqi said that the labor market could face longer-term challenges once temporary labor shortages are resolved. Many businesses adapted to work with fewer workers during the pandemic. This was often due to the use of technology that decreased the need for human labor.
The resurgence in COVID-19 cases, which is highly contagious delta variant, is also affecting the job outlook. The average number of new cases in the United States is now more than 75,000 per day. This is up from less than 12,000 per day in late June. However, this figure remains well below the 250,000 level of early January.
Boussour, Oxford Economics’ economist, suggests that the spread of the delta version might have “distracted workers’ willingness and ability” to return to the workforce.
She doubts that it will have an impact on July numbers as virus concerns didn’t increase until Labor Department collected data from its last month of hiring.
