In Belarus, protests continue — from peaceful demonstrations girls and women with flowers in their hands to the strikes in factories and dangerous collisions of protesters with security forces. Hallmark events — unprecedented levels of violent suppression of protests by police officers. To evaluate the protest potential of the population, “Kommersant” has asked the Belarusian sociologist Oleg Manaev, research associate, University of Tennessee (USA). Founded in 1992, the Independent Institute of socio-economic and political studies (IISEPS) was the first in Belarus non-governmental research center, but in 2005 was stripped of accreditation in the Republic.Read more— How do you assess the potential of protest in Belarus will increase protests?— To answer this question convincingly, with compelling facts and figures in hand it is impossible, because the independent sociology in Belarus outlawed. In public discourse, there are two picture.One presented by the authorities — from the official statements, Alexander Lukashenko (President of Belarus.— “B”), the security forces and officials, to the countless reviews the state of propagandists. In this picture are protesting the “group of thugs” led by “foreign puppeteers”. A different picture is presented by the protesters, the dissenters and their sympathizers. It and protest spread throughout the country, and soon “freedom will see you happily at the door, and the brothers of the sword you give”.The numbers of independent sociology when she was still there, talked about a lot, but not large protest potential in Belarusian society. For ten years, from 2006 to 2016 (when the IISEPS was able to spend the last survey), the number of people who considered themselves in opposition to the current government and are willing to participate in the protests has fluctuated between 15-20%. Those who have already participated in such actions, then it was 5-6%. The most mass action took place in April 1991, when the Lenin square in Minsk there were 100 thousand workers angered by the results of the reform Pavlova (monetary reform in the Soviet Union, named in honor of Prime Minister Valentin Pavlov.— “B”).— And today it is possible to be guided, in assessing the potential of protest? — Of course, the number of dissenters is growing Belarusians, many of them are ready to protest. The evidence of this mass dissatisfaction with the way the authorities reacted to the pandemic COVID-19, never a queue for the right to support alternative candidates during the election campaign and on the polling stations on the day of elections and mass protests after the vote. Last meeting Svetlana Tikhanovski (the opposition candidate in the election.— “B”) on Bangalore square in Minsk gathered, according to human rights, swish�� 60 thousand people. These facts also prove that the declared CEC 80% of votes for Lukashenka and 10% for his main rival Svetlana Tikhanovski not true.— The opposition, in turn, disseminates the information that the current President supports only 3% disagree — 97%. How is it untrue?— According to the headquarters Svetlana Tikhanovski, she received from 70% to 90% of the votes in different regions. At the time of this statement (August 10) at the headquarters were own data on voting results from approximately 250 5767 polling stations (that is, with 4.3% of the plots). With which plots were obtained this information in the statement were not specified. The media and social networks in this context, they mentioned different cities. Note that in Belarus there are 113 cities, 90 towns (GWP) and about 23.2 thousand rural settlements (SNP), but neither the VILLAGE nor the SNP in these comments is not mentioned.Volunteers of the public initiative “Honest people” gathered and analyzed data (received photo copies of the protocols) of 749 polling stations across Belarus, in which there are 1 055 973 votes. This represents 18.3% of the 5 761 379 of voters (official data of the CEC). According to this, even with the overstatement twice the turnout of early voting and subject to possible fraud in areas for Svetlana Tikhanovski voted 29.3% of voters (according to the CEC, 10%).Not having the real results of voting, to predict the magnitude and nature of the protests was impossible, because their main motive is to fight for the “stolen victory”. The aggressive response of the authorities to these protests has a dual effect. Some protesters it reinforces the anger at injustice, and a willingness to go further, while others, on the contrary, raising fears for his fate and the sense of hopelessness of further struggle.— And what kind of reaction is more common?— According to the interior Ministry, to protest in three dozen cities on the night of 9 August arrested 3 thousand people, the next day, 2 thousand, 11 Aug — 1 K, August 12 — 700. While it seems that the scale of protests did not increase, but taking new forms and becoming more violent: the workers of several large companies, including BelAZ in Zhodino and “Grodno Azot” has announced its intention to strike.However, there is another factor that determines the potential of protest, the structure of the Belarusian electorate. Years of public opinion polls that are regularly conducted by the Institute, it was clear that Lukashenka, there are two strong pillars in society and the state.One of its traditional electorate “deep Belarus”, the inhabitants of villages and small towns with a low level of education among ��which is dominated by pensioners. Another of his new electorate, the so-called sovereign people — security forces, government officials and close “to court” business. Of course, compared to 26 years ago, its traditional electorate decreased. But the new electorate, on the contrary, increased from the families of hundreds of thousands of people.And it’s not so much the promises Lukashenko as in the interests of these support groups of the electorate. They both, though in different ways, are interested in maintaining the status quo, or, as he said in his election address to Parliament and the people Lukashenko, “the uncontested role of the state in the life of the nation” and “improving what is”. The prospects of real reform only scare them, because many of them fear that the new gain, but what you have now, will lose: for some, it’s financial situation (including a small but stable salaries and pensions), for others a social status, for the third — power. So your “sword” they are not going to give anyone.— Is it possible to estimate the size of these groups?— In Belarus 2.5 million pensioners and 1 million public sector employees, material and social position of which depends entirely on the state. In villages and small towns (below 50 thousand inhabitants) is home to about 40% of the population. According to the CEC, the country has about 7 million voters, then, in the “deep of Belarus” is home to 2.8 million of them. According to many years of IISEPS polls, these voters actively participate in elections, and most of them vote for the incumbent. If we add several hundred thousand “sovereign people”, and much of the rank and file state employees, we get at least 3 million voters usually vote for Lukashenko. Considering these data, it turns out that in this election he (Alexander Lukashenko.— “Kommersant”) were to receive about half of the votes (as recorded by all postabortne the IISEPS polls in previous elections, although 20% below the data of the CEC).You should also consider that if voice of “dissent Belarus” the last time I heard louder, especially in social networks, the spontaneous voice “according to the Belarusian” is almost never heard. And organized specially selected performances of “ordinary people”, government officials or security forces, few believe. When these voices still erupt in independent media and social networks, they indicate that Lukashenka of Belarus, and if decreased, it will not go away. The social base of the existing regime in Belarus until Lukashenko will long remain after him. No wonder during the Soviet times Belarus was called by the Vendee of perestroika (similar to a Department of France that has never accepted the French revolution.— “Kommersant”).It cannot be excluded that the authorities can send konser��active energy to the part of society against the current supporters of change. In such a scenario to confront the “modern Vendee” may be even more difficult than law enforcement agencies. Open socio-political conflict in a divided society can lead to unpredictable consequences. So the picture that we see and hear, to put it mildly, incomplete.Added to this is that a significant part of the traditional national-democratic opposition, which opposes Lukashenko for a quarter century, a rather cool attitude to alternative candidates and combining their staffs and, in fact, remained aloof from the current protests. So, its political leader Zyanon Paznyak, almost a quarter of a century living in exile, shortly before the election called rapid unification of opposition political headquarters of the technology, coordinated with a regime that is interested in mass voting.Even if we assume that the wave of political activity of opponents of Lukashenko, covering the pre-election months, the capital and large cities of Belarus also touched on the “deep Belarus”, and in this case it is possible to talk about the unconditional victory of the alternative candidate, and that none of the candidates receives 50% plus one vote, and must be conducted in the second round. Not to take into account the circumstances means again fall into the trap of wishful thinking (when wishful thinking.— “Kommersant”), which is inevitably extinguished hopes, initiatives and protests of the Belarusian opposition in the last two decades.— Do the authorities think about the situation that you describe? Even if they know the “true” mood, given that the independent sociology in the Republic are almost there? Or is probation a secret honest surveys, the results of which lie on the table to the leadership?— Official sociology both worked, and will work until there is a budget. Honest surveys, if they are not intended for sociological propaganda, are held and reach Lukashenko is history has shown with the recent leak of the results of the research academic Institute of sociology, according to which April the trust rating of the President in Minsk did not exceed 24% (and, hence, the electoral rating of the country was of the order of 30%). It is possible that the results of these polls in fact influence the decision of the President. But given his nature, it seems unlikely that these decisions were directed to meet the attitudes and expectations of society. Most likely, even using such data, it comes from private interests for maintaining and strengthening their power. What we see on the example of how he reacts to the campaign and the results of presidential elections.Prepared By Galina Dudina
