the Second night of the “Belarusian revolution” was much more eventful and successful for the opposition than the first, despite the fact that Svetlana Tikhanovski eliminated from the protests and even disappeared from sight. It is the most powerful political challenge to Alexander Lukashenko, for all his career, and his chances to resist no longer seem absolute.
It’s probably not the best reason for irony, but how can you not recall that guerrilla Belarusians in the blood. The tactic for the Monday evening of trial and error, hit upon the protesters against the official results of the elections is more reminiscent of guerilla warfare.
Such a comparison will surely appeal to administrators telegrams-channel NEXTA – a key resource of the opposition, which publishes videos of what is happening in the country and attempts to coordinate the protest. It is that attempt: according to the same records show that developments are mostly chaotic, problems are solved as they arrive, that organizationally, the opposition is not ready to confrontation with the security forces, but people are already aware of all the risks and consciously come into conflict with the police.
Belarusian special forces, reinforced in Minsk on Monday airborne and Almaz, an elite “special forces,” keen on combating terrorism, on this channel, mainly referred to as “fascists” and “the Punisher”. And the rhetoric used, for example, this:
“Zhlobin, we are a city of Metallurgists, men of steel! We need to join forces and oust the fascists out of town! In our veins flows the steel!”
Or this: “Bobruisk, dear, please come out on Lenin square! I need help!”.
Or even this: “All human beings! All who stayed home, open their porches to Belarusians could hide.”
As predicted by the newspaper VIEW, what was happening in the country before was only the first test of strength. Earlier in the day of the Belarusian authorities, first and foremost, Lukashenka pretended that the hard work is done and that the regime that has passed through the election with a fair difficulty, celebrates the victory. However, in reality it was only about one won the battle, but the security forces were already preparing for the second, again overlapping the center of Minsk.
What will called “a new colored revolution,” or at least an attempt thereof, was held not as before in Georgia, Ukraine, or Yugoslavia. In the case of these countries law enforcement officers from time to time, almost did not let the revolutionary protests sauce “freedom of Assembly”, but in Belarus, all the street activity was stopped immediately and firmly – that Lukashenko was faithful to his promises.
While the opposition has lacked and still lack the financial and organizational resources, and even the Internet in the Republic of jammed. No the protesters and such, it would seem, absolutely necessary ��Gagaemauga success as leaders. Svetlana Tikhanovski, who plays the role of the technical candidate from the opposition, from street fighting was eliminated from participation in the meetings refused, and after his arrival to the CEC with a complaint on results of voting in General disappeared from radar.
When, after several hours of searching, Tikhanovski still made contact, it is very few who cared – a protest he lived his life.
It all began modestly, almost resignedly. Teaming up in groups of 20-30 people, Belarusians walked to the center of the capital, on the road they were met by security forces with batons and were either arrested or dispersed in the surrounding yards. Sometimes got under the hand, totally random people that relished in social networks, they say, “what are you Nazis doing”.
It is not excluded that the videos tough police action to take effect, and by midnight the number of protesters on the streets has increased dramatically. Those who are not going to play with the security forces in “Cossacks-robbers”, the Protestants expressed support for a measure of imagination. Homebodies was flashing with electricity, drivers pressed on the horns, and the residents of the sleeping quarters came out of their houses and applauded each other.
The appearance of the police, the feast of disobedience minimized – people were hiding in the apartments and hallways, and then booed the security forces from the Windows.
Special forces in these circumstances resembled the fire Department, the appearance which the fire dissipates. But over time, the city having dozens of small and several very large permanent “pockets” where people actively protesting or pretending to be a simple walk turned out to be a critical lot. To suppress such meetings as before the security forces could not, in the social networks actively broadcast the idea that arrests have already chosen your online – I have neither paddy nor the places of detention.
About the same time began to appear barricades, constructed mainly of benches and trash cans. In some places the congregation moved from salacak and hiding to active resistance first erupted in the conflagration of the first Molotov cocktails.
Drivers on the roads created artificial congestion, depriving the security forces of mobility and preventing them from reinforcements. With the same purpose, someone tried to use a homemade “hedgehogs”.
The main weapon of the police, in addition to batons, stun grenades left that gave the impression that Minsk is an endless shootout. In parallel, was seriously strengthened the protection of administrative buildings, which were brought skeins of barbed wire and spiral Bruno.
By the time of this writing, the account of the wounded on both sides already exceeded a hundred. Worse, there was the first confirmed victim. According to police, the young man p��died trying to throw at the security forces a explosive device. According to the opposition, he was killed by a stun grenade. Given the active use of such shells by the security forces, this version looks more plausible, but the radicalization of protest from the opposition as well. In at least two cases drivers cars intentionally rammed a SWAT.
Almost equally eventful night was in Brest, where he attempted the erection of barricades less successful than in the capital. Did particularly well as many satellite cities as Minsk and Brest: its inhabitants literally begged to go to the streets through social networks to take back some of the special forces, and these prayers are often heard.
Overall, as before, the protests took a very broad geographical coverage, albeit was uneven in strength.
Closer to morning, protesters – including those who literally managed to win a strategic position in the centre of Minsk, began to disperse, promising to return and “finish the job”. But if the fight that occurred the day before, Lukashenka rightfully could record their victory on Monday, the “point” of the night battle is given to the opposition. She performed at least one important task that is set before them.
In the night from Monday to Tuesday, any of the capital Minsk, nor the provincial cities of Belarus no resemblance to the state where four out of five citizens yesterday voted for the incumbent President, as it was 10 or 15 years ago. People support Lukashenka, really a lot, they’re everywhere now found a way to prove his existence to the world, and most importantly – each other.
Belarus – a country where there are no oligarchs, there is no alternative to the President’s power centres, there is no popular opposition, no Soros foundations, not even the American Embassy (his plan to recreate). Therefore, such a significant protest in an aggressive, and in purely formal, demonstrative forms could flourish there only in the case that a very significant number of citizens critically dissatisfied with the head of state.
This does not mean that Lukashenko is doomed. He still has a chance to remain President, albeit a very different – has received from the public “black mark” is politically weakened, has lost the favor of the West (and hence much more tractable for the East). This follows at least from the fact that while the opposition has no visible resources to accomplish a full revolution, for example, through the capture and retention of administrative buildings.
At the same time, this opposition large enough to force the President into a war of attrition. Power resources are already overextended, rushing between cities and obviously didn’t count on so mastalnoe confrontation.
Sunday this was only a guess, but on Monday it became clear that Lukashenko does not control the situation fully, the level of dissatisfaction they are great and that the protest is indeed a popular character. If clashes like this, it will become a regular if they added a day of strikes in enterprises, which encourages the opposition, if the minimum containment of protesters, the largest city in the country will have to keep papercrete, no Internet and virtually under siege, surrounded by Lukashenko may be issued a full split. And the rift in the security forces is fraught with serious changes, sometimes like a military junta, and sometimes to “move to the side of the people.”
History has known those and other scenarios, but the Belarusians have a very special way, as now, when they have demonstrated an attempt to “color” or any other revolution, a little similar to those we observed in Europe and the former Soviet Union for the last 25 years.
