Forest reserves of Russia was more available in the country of oil. To such conclusion analysts of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in the course of recent studies (at the disposal “of the Tape.ru”). The cost of both the Russian and the world’s forests in the foreseeable future may be significantly reduced.
the Authors estimated the value of forests globally and in Russia. Their value is unevenly distributed, as it depends on several factors. Chief among them is the ability to regulate the climate and counteract global warming. In the world on this factor accounts for 65-90 percent of the value of forests in Russia — 81-96 percent.
environmental advantages for the environment in the world accounting for 2-7% of the value of forests in Russia 1-3%. Commercial potential (possible income from the sale of paper and pulp) — 5-20% in the world and 2-8 percent in Russia, social importance (the role of forests as places of residence and source of livelihood of the people) — 2-7 percent in the world and in Russia.
Based on these four factors, analysts estimated the aggregate value of forest resources. In the whole world it is in the range of 50 to 150 trillion, but by 2050 may be reduced by 30 percent, mainly because of land-use change and rising temperatures.
the value of the Russian forests — despite the world’s largest reserves are significantly lower and currently stands at about four trillion dollars. In the next 30 years, it may decline 10 percent, mainly from unsustainable logging, low control over the reforestation and numerous fires.
However, even in the current environment the cost of Russian forests is 28 percent more than the combined value of all domestic oil reserves. The authors conducted calculations of the outcomes of the current prices of the European trade Union: $ 27 per ton of carbon emission which prevent forests. However, the BCG analysts believe that would be a fair price to 135 dollars per ton of carbon, in which the aggregate value of the Russian forests would have already 17 trillion dollars (in 5.5 times higher than the price of all Russian oil).
it is Important to develop production is not due to the expansion of the used area of the forest, and by switching to more effective methods
At the moment, according to the findings of the authors, the commercial potential of the Russian forest reserves. “The key to that lies in the development of forest based industries with a higher added value. It is important to develop production is not due to the expansion of the used area of the forest, and by switching to more effective methods of intensive forestry on already developed areas and plantation forestry”, — says�� in the report.
However, if you take the necessary measures, deforestation could be stopped. For this we need to plant, restore and use rationally existing forests, develop sustainable and efficient agriculture, to reduce the population’s consumption of meat and to increase secondary wood processing and strive to manufacture products such as palm oil and soy — they all prevent deforestation.
Even in this case, to completely prevent the reduction of the value of the world’s forests by 2050 will not work, but you can limit it to 10 percent (instead of 30). In addition, under specified conditions it is possible to transition to a new model in which the forest will absorb more carbon than select (now the situation is reversed). To increase their value in the next 30 years, it is necessary to plant forests, an area of 900 million hectares. But in this case you have to carry many individual possessions.
In a previous study, BCG analysts estimate that if the introduction in Europe of a new tax on emissions of carbon dioxide (called carbon fee) the Russian exporters will lose annually from 3 to 4.8 billion dollars. To a large extent a tax aimed at the prevention of global warming may relate to the oil and gas industries — one of the main items of Russian exports.
