In Belarus, August 9, started the main day of the presidential election. There is little doubt that the vote will result in the end of the regular reelection of the incumbent Alexander Lukashenko, who has been in power for five terms — 26 years. But this year, on the background of aggravation of the situation in domestic policy of the Republic and foreign, his victory is in danger of being inconclusive and lead to further increased tensions.
Early voting in Belarus began on 4 August — then the Central election Commission (CEC) of the Republic reported a turnout of 5% of the total electorate. On the eve of election day, she was, according to official data, more than 32%. Critically-minded analysts, this information raises reasonable doubts: ultimately, it’s easier to go to the site in the output, instead of spending time on the weekdays, and a third of voters — a significant figure, especially given the numerous calls for a boycott.
However, the experience of past elections, which always won Lukashenko, shows: any numbers of CEC’s probably just “draws”. In addition, before the President faced stiff competition and because his victory was to try to present it as legitimate — are actively supported by the population because of rivals is still not there.
Putin called Lukashenko
This year the situation has changed radically. Lukashenko sixth term is fundamentally important: it he outlined the constitutional changes and, according to some experts, even planning to prepare the transfer of power to his son Nicholas. So he needs a convincing victory, which would have cost him new Western sanctions and other costs.
To simulate a truly free election, the government did a lot. Originally the intention to nominate their candidates said 55 action teams — a record number for the Republic. The CEC, however, initially refused most of them, but serious rivals left. Them of a steel eks-the head of Belgazprombank Viktor Babariko and Creator of the Belarusian high-tech Park Valery Tsepkalo.
Both have demonstrated the ability to consolidate the protest electorate. Babariko, according to unofficial data, it was at some points up to 60% public support, while Lukashenka has a little over 20% (the true rating, many believe, and worse — hence the nickname Sasha 3%). In the end, the game ended in a democracy: the government initiated the “Belgazprombank”, and then detained the candidate. With Tsepkalo everything was even easier — he rejected the part of signatures in support, and he “dialed” the number.
Against this background only how a prospective opponent is Svetlana Tikhanovski, the wife of popularth blogger Sergei Tikhanovski, forced to join in the race instead of the husband after his arrest. Political analysts have expressed doubts about its competitiveness. If Sergei tikhanovski really enjoys the support of many Belarusians, his wife, they were little known.
But in the end she managed the seemingly impossible in the conditions of Belarusian politics: unite the opposition. The headquarters of Babariko and Tsepkalo announced the beginning of joint work with Tikhanovski, she refused presidential ambitions, promising in case of victory, just to hold new, fair elections with the tolerance of all candidates. And this tactic worked, and demonstrated that large-scale rally in her support in Minsk, which brought together, according to human rights, 64 thousand people.
Tikhanovski participation in the campaign is one of the most serious if not the most important challenge for Lukashenka. The expert community does not exclude that post-election events in Belarus can go on fairly radical scenarios. Defeat Lukashenko, of course, does not recognize, it is obvious to all, the Belarusians have already demonstrated a growth in protest activity, it is able to organize large-scale anti-government protests. Force to suppress protests, as demonstrated by the events of recent months, only stir them, so like the Ukrainian Maidan, which frightened the population the President himself, who looks not so unreal. Another version of events — “Venezuelan” that is the West’s recognition Tikhanovski as the new President, but also the preservation of Lukashenko levers of government with the support of the security forces. In any case, the fundamental importance acquires the role of Moscow, which clearly does not need another crisis on the Western borders.
