Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Dmitry Babin, an expert on the stock market, “BCS”, analyzed the situation and identified positive trends in Europe, assessing their degree of probability.
Recall that all last month, experts have claimed that the situation on world markets was favorable, and the price of oil is not particularly a failure. But in the end the ruble since the beginning of the year fell to EUR 20.7 percent. And only in July, up 8.7%. The situation is similar in the us. Our currency lost him this year to 16.7 percent. In July and 4.2. What can turn the situation in favor of the ruble?
Dmitry, so what are the factors revealed in July, will continue to put pressure on the ruble in August?
Dmitry Babin: Indeed, external market conditions in July not only didn’t expect such a sharp decline in Russian currency, but also created the preconditions for its stability or even growth.
However, the ruble was under pressure from internal negative factors. First and foremost, it is the continuing overvaluation of the Russian currency to oil. The ruble cost of a barrel of Brent is 3.2 thousand rubles. It is below the corridor last year, 3.7-4.4 thousand, which is more comfortable for the state budget, and oil and gas companies. From the point of view of income.
But before the ruble is not particularly bothered.
Dmitry Babin: In late spring – early summer, this imbalance was offset to high ruble demand on the OFZ, as well as expectations of the recovery of oil prices from multi-year lows.
However, a further rise in oil prices remains in question because of the threat of the second wave of the pandemic coronavirus. It will impede the recovery of the global demand for oil.
as for BFL, here the role played by the rapid easing of monetary policy the Bank of Russia. This has led to a significant reduction in the yields of government bonds. They are not so much attracted to non-residents, many of whom prefer to sell OFZ bonds, the proceeds converting rubles into foreign currency.
in addition to this traditional sanctions pressure?
Dmitry Babin: of Course, and it also continues to influence market players. For example, recently Russia has completed dividend season. And foreign participants to our market, dividends received are converted into foreign currency, although they have the option to reinvest them back into Russian shares.
Why do they do it? Because of the high foreign policy risks. The fact is that with the approaching November elections of the President of the United States increase sanctions and other foreign policy risks for Russia. We are already seeing increased anti-Russian rhetoric.
That is, no new factors have increased?
Dmitry Babin: I would add another two factors the decline of the ruble. First – return ExC��genego demand for imported goods and services with a high proportion of imported components occurring by weakening the anti-virus restrictions in Russia.
the Second resumption from August 1, the international air communication. This will increase the number of tourists and, hence, the demand for foreign currency.
In the end, all we have said, in varying degrees, will continue to exert pressure on the ruble, at least in the next month.
And no positive options? Yesterday, for example, the ruble was trying to show character, and even in the moment have grown.
Dmitry Babin: the effects of all these factors can weaken or completely neutralize the possible rise in oil prices. But if it will be sustainable.
more specifically?
Dmitry Babin: If quotes Brent rises above $ 50 per barrel and will be fixed above this level, then the dollar is able to return to the rate of 70 rubles. And even to five-month low of 68 rubles.
is it real?
Dmitry Babin: While this scenario is too optimistic. The likelihood of its implementation now looks low.
this requires a combination of positive trends in the global economy and the stabilization of relations between the US and China. However, at the moment the economic dynamics is under threat the problems of coronavirus. And the establishment of U.S.-China dialogue interfere with the coming U.S. presidential election.
However, in global markets rally continues for risk assets as investors still prefer to ignore the many problems, putting on their emergency resolution, or a loss of relevance.
