The recovery of the Russian Federation to “darowizny” levels will, according to the Bank of Russia, to occur synchronously with the rest of the world, even in the case of maintaining the current levels of oil prices. From figures and estimates “Report on monetary policy” the Central Bank should, which is probably slightly faster, by 2022, the recovery of GDP compared with the world average.The report on monetary policy (DCT), the Bank of Russia publishes in 2020 to four times a year at the end of the month in which you are “support” meetings of the Board of Directors on the key rate — the last one took place in July, at the same time approved the change in the macroeconomic forecast of the Central Bank. The forecast is published on the day of the meeting, but only the text of the document gives a complete picture of the logic of the actions of the Bank of Russia and reasons for its decision-making. Compared to the previously submitted comments in the report on DCT there are no major changes, the most interesting in it, probably, is the implicit mapping by the Bank of Russia forecasts a recovery in the global economy.We will remind, the forecast of the Central Bank is traditionally conservative on the dynamics of “basic prices” in the economy of the Russian Federation — the price of export oil. Now the point of view of the Central Bank is the increase in the annual average price on Urals prior to the “cutoff price” on the “budget rule” in 2022, to $45 a barrel at the same time, we will remind, the Bank of Russia focused on a balanced budget (1% deficit) 2022. Under these assumptions, according to the Central Bank, “the recovery of the Russian economy will occur synchronously with the rest of the world”, despite high anticipated for the 2021-2022 years, the rate of GDP growth, “to the end of the forecast period” (i.e. by January 2023) “global GDP will not reach the level predicted before the pandemic.” Meanwhile, from the figures forecast by the Bank of Russia for the Russian economy to restore pre-crisis level of GDP can be expected in the second half of 2022. The difference, apparently, is a few months, minor for the reality and easy to “eat” the accidental circumstances, however, the repair rate is slightly higher than the world, can be quite an important trend in some measure component are the comparative results of the defeat coronavirus pandemic of the economy in different jurisdictions (independent not only from government actions, but from circumstances).The report contains several observations that explain the relative optimism of the Central Bank. These long preservation of the output gap of GDP in major economies by the end of 2022 (CB implies a small gap for the Russian Federation “the bulk” of 2022), the expectation of the Central Bank output in domestic demand in Russia to the level of 2019 to 2022, strong enough to support the economy in the second quarter from the budget, have demonstrated that relatively small��lechenie country risk. Some of the factors related to the effect of oil prices: this, in particular, the expected preservation of the balance of payments surplus. Any excess of oil prices relative to the forecast level (in contrast to the reduction in this level of protected “budget rule” and the national welfare Fund) is likely to intensify the pace of recovery of GDP, but global GDP is oil dependent, to a lesser extent other mechanisms. But without it, the Bank of Russia admits in 2022 gradual increase of investment attractiveness of Russian jurisdiction and the narrowing of the financial account balance for the private sector, including with projected growth rates.Dmitry Butrin
