the Part in a very suspicious (at least at first glance) integration process offers Russia one of its most important partners – India. The most dangerous thing about what may be involved in this case is the creation of an anti-China coalition, in which Moscow categorically does not want to participate. Do our Indian friends on a couple of the United States wants to pit us against each other with the Chinese?
The United States has declared a crusade of all civilized Nations against the "tyranny" of China and unsuccessfully trying to drag him to the Russian Federation. Moscow strongly refuses – why she won't engage in unnecessary conflict on the side of the state, signifying its goal of containment of Russia, and who introduced against Russia sanctions. That is why Russia, in particular, with great skepticism looks at offer Indian friends to participate in the embodiment of the concept of the Indo-Pacific region (ITR) is a kind of integration structure, which would combine the local countries in order to contribute to the development of each other.
Moscow sees this project as the embodiment of American concept of creation in ITR a kind of anti-Chinese block, designed to contain the expansion of China in South-East direction, to take control of the trade route from China to Europe in the future to take China in a strategic environment. But the Kremlin's attitude to the attempts to draw Russia into a confrontation with China we all know: Moscow, Washington does not serve neither on Mondays nor Fridays. And sees no reason to complicate its geopolitical position and go into conflict with China for the dubious pleasure to give the Americans a free service. Therefore, do not want to participate in an anti-Chinese, in her opinion, engineers.
Five ITR
But the Indians is not suggesting – indeed, under the Indo-Pacific integration, they understand not the regional project on containment of the Chinese comrades. "The very concept of engineers in its modern interpretation was launched in India back in 2007 and was meant more as a commercial space. Then it was adopted by other countries and began to bring to it new meanings and values. In the end, today there are at least five visions of ITR, which differs considerably from each other.
The Australian version revolves around Australia and the South Pacific ocean, Japan – around the Western Pacific – Indonesian revolves around ASEAN, and ASEAN centrality in interaction with other powers AndIndian and Western Pacific ocean. Americans believe that engineers covers the Eastern part of India and the entire Pacific ocean, and in their understanding of this construct, which gives rise to the formation of anti-Chinese "bloc of democracies" on the basis of a quadripartite partnership of the United States, India, Japan and Australia. In the Indian understanding of the engineers left it as a cultural and economic space that is not associated with some blocks," – says the newspaper VIEW senior researcher, IMEMO ran Alexei Kupriyanov.
From the point of view of the current Prime Minister of India Narendra modi, instead of "Asian rivalry" his country much more profitable will be the "Asia cooperation". Cooperation between all countries of the ITR or having interests there. These countries should respect each other's sovereignty, not interfere in the internal Affairs colleagues, to play by the generally accepted rules. Furthermore (and here the key difference between American "Asian rivalry" Indian "Asia cooperation"), not restrict access to other countries ' sea and air communications, to develop the marine economy, and also together to fight crime and terrorism. Well, to build "bridges of trust" with each other.
In fact, it is a logical development of the concept of 2007, is built around the theory of General protection of ITR countries (especially India and Japan) is a vital Maritime trade routes. It is clear that this Indian variant of ITR is quite inclusive, and is not something that admits and presupposes the involvement of China and Russia.
And since domestic politics are often regarded engineers in the American sense, it is a paradoxical situation: on the official level, our beginning to explain to the Indians that they did not need to join the engineers because it's an anti-China concept. From the point of view of Indians, it looks very strange – after all, their understanding of engineers is fundamentally different from the American as in philosophy, and goals.
You go here
Even assuming the Indian understanding of the ITR, then Russia will still have questions. The main of which is very simple: don't start if we can come in one project and after some time suddenly see that fit into completely different? Because if you really start integration in the framework of the engineers, how the Indian version of the concept will be combined with the us?
For the Americans – no way. Donald trump and his administration (and judging by the presence of US anti-China consensus -- and the successors of trump at the White house) are making serious efforts to create engineers in a kind of analogue of an anti-China NATO. U.S. Secretary of state Mike Pompeo has already stated that one of the reasons for the reduction of the American military presence in Europe is the threat posed by China to safely��STI India and South-East Asia. Accordingly, to integrate it will be hard anti-China basis – the benefit of the region there are enough countries that fear the expansion of China and are interested in the protection of its sovereignty, and (in some cases) and its territory from the Chinese.
The concept of deterrence of China and its strategic environment requires the participation of all major regional players, primarily India. A nuclear power bordering China and controlling the sea lanes between Europe and the Middle East on the one hand and East Asia on the other.
Washington is interested in the fact that in new Delhi took the American view of the ITR and this anti-Chinese bloc have joined.
And the Americans believe it's possible – especially given the increasingly aggressive behavior of China. Washington experts agree – the main beneficiary of June's bloody clashes between Indian and Chinese troops on the frontline became the United States. And the more such clashes and provocations, the more Indians will bow to the military Alliance with the United States.
Will the Americans push the Indians? In fact in India really afraid of China. Some believe that the conflict with China will grow – in fact, according to some Indian experts, Beijing sees India as a sort of state-spoiler, which is supported by Japan, the United States and several other countries are trying to prevent the realization of "Chinese dream", XI Jinping. Accordingly, in India is there is a debate on the subject of whether India to join Washington in a military-political Alliance. However, the problem for US is that while the arguments against this Union, much more than opinions in support of it.
So, Indians do not believe that in which case Americans would be willing to send troops to help India to protect against Chinese (or Chinese-Pakistani) attack. Argue that this is impossible because of the specificity of the political system of the United States, the unwillingness of American society to a new military campaign in Asia, as well as the inability of the United States to successfully implement their interests. The most that can to India from the US is military assistance, and intelligence. Besides, according to Alexey Kupriyanov, "Indians understand only too well all the advantages of his position: if there's a conflict, the United States will provide India help even without a formal Union, and Russia on the side of China will not interfere. Plus India just a day to block supplies to Pakistan and China of oil from the Persian Gulf countries and meet China and Pakistan will be nothing".
In addition, the problem is in the add-ons. USA when trump is actively monetizing its Alliance relations, and the protection require to go in line with Washington policy and ��other issues. German arm-twisting on the subject of abandoning the construction of the "Nord stream – 2", and India will similarly have to twist your arm in terms of refusal to purchase Russian weapons and to require the collapse of cooperation with Iran.
The trial balloons have already been abandoned in 2018 – and then, after serious internal debate in the American administration it was decided not to enter against India penalties for buying Iranian oil. The us military (which was against the sanctions), it explained that the move will scare away new Delhi and bury all the political investment made at that time in us-India relations.
For its part, the Indian media went the shaft of publications about the fact that their country is a great power and must not allow third countries to influence their foreign policy. Even the experts, occupying mostly Pro-American position, expressed clear dissatisfaction with – and even despite the fact that India at that time withdrew from the sanctions, the sediment still remained. "India does not suit the Union, in which she plays the role of a Junior ally of the US. For new Delhi determining a priority of self-interest and refusal to join any Alliance", – says Alexey Kupriyanov.
Thus, India will continue to stand on its concept and do not subscribe to American vision.
India as Russia
In fact, India here is very similar to Russia – it is also the Americans are trying to involve in unnecessary conflict, is fraught with serious strategic weakening and do not involve any serious bonuses. But if the Indians rested, in the near future we can expect serious discussion between the leading countries on the subject of whether Asia space trade-economic cooperation or the us-Chinese rivalry.
That is why new Delhi is so important the inclusion of Russia if Moscow will make a "leap of faith" and agree with the Indian plan, it could allay the suspicions of the Chinese that the Indians under the guise of cooperation and partnership assemble an anti-China bloc. Then, perhaps, China itself will connect to the project based on Indian vision – which will strengthen the negotiating position of Delhi and let the Indian leadership to avoid unnecessary confrontation.
As for Russia, it is (in contrast to prospects of connections to the U.S. plans) will also get your gesheft. Since the realization of the Russian-Indian "Maritime silk road" (transportation corridor from Vladivostok to Chennai) and ending with the transformation of the triangle Russia – India – China of the imagination in the Eurasian objective reality.
