Especially for “the Russian newspaper” Peter Pushkarev, chief analyst at TeleTrade, has defined guidelines for the movement of currencies in August and spoke about the events of the coming week.
Peter, so that will help the ruble to strengthen at this time?
Peter Pushkarev: Creates a favorable situation for the redistribution of the international capital flows to emerging markets – of course, including Russia.
Financial investors ‘ interest focused on the mechanisms of the so-called carry trade strategies. This is when the funds take a credit line in foreign currency at close to zero percent. And then put their money already in the ruble OFZ at 5 percent or more per annum, giving a taken foreign currency loans with a minimum.
Or, alternatively, allocate capital to corporate bonds of key Russian companies, payments are higher and almost guaranteed as well due to the high degree of state participation in these companies.
Still, probably, it is necessary to consider another reduction in key rates by the Central Bank?
Peter Pushkarev: oddly enough, Friday’s Central Bank decision to lower the rate on ruble loans by 0.25 percent to support the ruble. As such calibrated and not too big step leaves room for further decreases in the rate in 2020.
because Of this, by the autumn can fall proposed the Finance Ministry coupon payments for buyers of new OFZ issues. So, investors would rather buy them in the near future – in August-September, conventionally at 5 percent per annum. Than to do it after two or three months, and to only 4.5 or even 4 percent per annum.
All of this serves as a good medium-term props for the ruble – at least until the beginning of September.
But there is something that he can relax?
Peter Pushkarev: Now all the world’s exchange rates, including the dollar/ruble directly tied to the degree of exchange positive.
At rises in world stock exchanges a portion of “risk” money is of dollars and in ruble-denominated assets, helping our currency. And stock correction in America or in Europe, Asia, the ruble, on the contrary, undermine. And because of the exchange a little more nervous than in the first half of July, and the trend towards a moderate weakening of the ruble is not broken. Although, I must admit, over the past week, much of it tweaked and smoothed.
the Obvious psychological disadvantage, able to work against the ruble, in addition to possible stock fluctuations in the United States and Europe, will serve as a traditionally bad reputation Aug, developed over many years for the Russian currency.
And it’s not only the default of 1998. Investors remember that in 2018 the last round of weakening of the ruble, began in August. That’s when the dollar again broke up from-��od the level of 65 rubles.
your forecast, what rate of ruble, we will see by September?
Peter Pushkarev: In August I see the corridor of the dollar/ruble from 67 to 74 rubles with a possible test of both borders.
Break it seriously can only be a very powerful progress on world markets. But that’s only if there is a long time to change the mood, because now the expectations on the stock markets of the USA and America is more positive.
the Strap of the corridor a pair of Euro/ruble can easily be lifted up and significantly above 85 rubles, but not the fact that for a long time. Everything will depend on the will players to take profits on bets on the Euro’s rise against the dollar until the end of August. Or the Euro will accelerate so well, that will be relevant even in September.
But back in July. What are the prospects for the coming weeks?
Peter Pushkarev: remarkable events in the global economic calendar for Monday is not. It can be noted except that the data on industrial profits in China for June, the assessment of the activity of the Ifo Institute of Germany and the figures on orders for durable goods from America.
But the fluctuations of the exchanges, and, therefore, the ruble will probably more impact the corporate statements of a large number of global companies. The most influential reports are expected by the end of the week, as details from Washington about a new package of tax support.
So Monday-Tuesday the pair dollar/ruble will hold within the range 70,75-72,35 mixed. A pair of Euro/ruble will hardly go down below to 82.5. But it can rise up to 84.5-85, in that case if the Euro will manage to rise to 1.18 against the dollar.
the Additional time complexity for the following week, the ruble can create and finish in Russia in July of the tax period, during which large companies have replaced substantial amounts of currency into rubles to pay in the budget.
