2020 year was the most “turbulent” for the housing market over the past six years. The devaluation of the ruble, the regime of self-isolation, government support of the mortgage — all of these factors affect the cost per square meter. The ordinary person is not easy to weigh the “pros” and “cons” of choosing a favorable moment for the purchase or sale of housing. More than that — a clear understanding and have a real estate guru. Nevertheless, experts have tried to consider possible scenarios of development of events. And explain why the demand for housing decreases and prices rise.
this year is a risky time to buy a home. The temptation to get involved in a preferential mortgage, especially inhabitants of the Far East eligible for loans at rates of 1.6-2%. Yes and 5.3 to 6.5% for mortgages with state support seem feasible compared to 13-15%, which the banks offered to the Russians in recent years. Program of state, recall, is valid until Nov. It is not excluded that the Central Bank will extend it until January, and then another year. But it may not extend — to change the situation any “external shock” (for example, devaluation). So it is necessary to take as given?
the Experts shrug their shoulders: to give a definite answer impossible. According to the optimistic forecast of the Institute for economic forecasting, in 2020 Russia’s GDP will shrink by 5.3%, people’s incomes by 5.2%. The number of unemployed in the period of isolation has increased in Russia to 10 million, and by the autumn, according to the President of Superjob Alexei Zakharov, can reach 20 million people. Many of those people are not even aware that in the coming months will be forced to go to the labour exchange. In such circumstances, any major purchase if it is not well-thought-out investment of free money is a gamble.
Potential investors who want to “throw” money from the Bank assets in the estate, you should think about. Because of coronaries the primary housing market was frozen for two and a half months. But prices have not decreased, and grew. According to the company “Metrium”, in the mass segment of new buildings of Moscow from the beginning of the year, “the square” on average rose by 7.4% — up to 188 thousand rubles. In may and June, despite an unprecedented decline in demand, prices have ceased to rise, but fell. A similar situation exists in the market of new buildings business class, where the “square” since the beginning of the year rose by 7.3% — to 259 thousand rubles, and in the second quarter, prices did not decrease.
In Russia, according to the Uniform resource developers, the average cost per square meter in a newly built residential buildings from December 2019 to June 2020 increased from 76.6 to 85.5 thousand thousand. rubles, that is almost 12%. According to analysts, prices at the end of 2020 will grow for the following reasons: the reform of shared construction, by reducing the��tion mortgage rates, recovery of demand after the isolation, the increase in construction costs. Against the background of weak economic growth can only be expected to slow the pace of price growth, but a sharp fall is unlikely.
However, the decrease in demand is still a very likely scenario, and subsidizing mortgages only soften this process. In this case, the developers will be more willing to give discounts. Now in mass market and business class, the average discount rate is 5%.
On the secondary housing market situation is even sadder. The state program to support the mortgage on this segment do not apply. But “draconian” 15% gone. If you search well, you can find deals on the loan at 8-10% per annum. While mortgage rates for second homes continue to decline. According to “the House.RF”, only one week in July, the average interest rate on such loans decreased by 0.24 percentage points. The experts suggest that buyers of second homes to wait for fall in interest rates. Most likely the level of 7-7,5% to the end of the year.
it makes sense to wait and for another reason. The mode of isolation and withdrawal from the market of buyers has forced the owners of secondary homes to remove them from sale. According to “Indicators of housing market”, the volume of supply of such housing in Moscow in April-may reduced by 20-30% compared to dekorativnym period. The market formed a supply shortage. However, experts believe that very soon the owners of old housing to boost sales. Some want to take advantage of low interest rates on loans for new buildings, to purchase a mortgage, a new apartment, having sold the old one. Moreover, during the regime of isolation increased the number of unclaimed rental apartments. Their owners also can think about selling.
at the same time not expect the second wave of coronavirus, which will destroy the plans of both buyers and sellers. With high probability, the epidemiological situation will worsen in the autumn. Perhaps the work of the multipurpose centers, registrars, banks and realtors will once again be paralyzed. In such circumstances, the “minimum program” for buyers and sellers should be the creation of digital signature — it will allow us to formalize various agreements remotely. As the owners of the secondary are not yet able to arrange remote sales, as developers, there is a high probability that they will rush to get rid of the property in August-September. During this period, the choice for consumers will grow, you can count on a good discount. The Council, which can, in turn, give the seller — not to hurry with the sale of the apartment without urgent need.
Managing Director of the company “Metrium” (partner CBRE network) Hope Korkka admits an absolute guarantee of the correctness of a particular strategy in such difficult conditions one can not give, because the situation is changing very quickly. The virus can cross the most logical predictions and tips, as was more than once.
