If at least a year ago, a scientist predicted that a crowded bus will become without exaggeration a deadly place, it at least would’ve made fun of at every corner in social networks. And he forever would have received the stigma of “crazy town”. However, in 2020 the world met COVID-19, after which such prophecies have ceased to bring a smile even in cowed dissidents professionally do not trust the official information. Now, even a young child know that in public transport you can easily pick up any infection: unless coronavirus, the SARS unpleasant or something worse — nobody knows how pathogenic microorganism following learn to live in the human body.
the Chinese are in practice calculated that the patient — carrier COVID-19, even temporarily unaware of their health problems, for one trip on public transport able to infect up to seven or more of the surrounding passengers. Even those who is at a distance of 4.5 meters — and not approaching them and not interacting with others.
In Russia the mathematical model created by associate Professor of the Department of probability theory and applied mathematics MTUCI by Elena Skorodumova showed that the probability of being in “the zone” a patient with coronavirus in the bus is 69,7%.
note that without these studies, the inhabitants of large cities, with their own personal vehicles, and are now trying to use it and not potentially dangerous to the public, despite the fact that coronavirus in most parts of our country, “canceled” and local authorities have allowed citizens to move freely without masks.
unfortunately, the majority of citizens of our country to change from bus to car as a personal car they have. Not expected because of deteriorating because of shumoizolyatsionnye limitations of the state of the economy.
on the other hand, has not been canceled, the probability of the second wave is sort of like shinosaka of the Russian cities and villages COVID-19. Academic and practicing epidemiologists almost in unison say that the law “painful” genre COVID-19, like any other virus, once released into the human population, there will be more times to come to our new “waves” — like this decades makes the familiar seasonal flu. Here next fall and experts expect the widespread of a new rise in the incidence of coronavirus. Yes, people try to the best of their ability to avoid the dangers of riding on public transport, to reduce the chance of possible contamination. But what if, in addition as on Shuttle bus or minibus (in fact, exactly the same bus!) no work will not fall, no child shcoke or daycare will not deliver or store not get. Because the backbone of public transportation is buses. And for the most part — already very old and worn. It is the capital can afford to buy hundreds of buses for public transport, and the province is chronically “wears” old “bass.” So, as of January 1, 2020, in Russia, there were 409 900 buses. The average age of their Park was 16.5 years, with 45,8% of all buses in the country are over the age of 15 years.
Machine such a venerable model year, in principle, can not boast of decent ventilation of the cabin, acceptable to the coronavirus realities. In addition, old cars regularly fail simply because of their age. Repairs is always a decent percentage of formally existing on the balance sheet of the rolling stock. In addition, owners of autos, especially after the pandemic “crown” financial losses, are forced to minimize costs and try to serve the same ridership with fewer machines. For this reason, the number of buses on the lines artificially reduced. Passengers forced to crash into the buses like sardines. What kind of social distance, then it is possible to speak?! If the sick, which in a Chinese study has infected COVIDом neighbors in the cabin (at a distance of 4.5 meters from them!), in some typical Voronezh the bus, when infected turned out to be not 7 people, and 177 of the poor, who are forced to use existing public transport in the current economic environment. If we add to this picture such an integral part of our daily lives as the lack of masks for many passengers, the picture becomes quite “funny”. If since the beginning of autumn in regions Rossiyanochka “second wave” COVID-19 (and they are, as we found out, as inevitable as the coming flu), pandemic will inevitably start to assemble your sad “harvest”. And it will not be able to stop any natural causes like the arrival of summer sun and heat, segasega “first wave” in late may — early June.
Free bed Fund, supply of drugs, mobilization of doctors, quarantine, dramatically gave way the economy is an arbitrarily chosen region that has not yet recover from the spring phase of the pandemic is, of course, remarkable and, to some extent, even proven interventions. But are the measures of fight against consequences and not the cause of the infection of hundreds of thousands of residents. Much more correct (and cheaper for everyone!) it would advance you to pay attention to old and insufficient in number, bus depot or other subject of the Federation. To��which, with high probability, for any pandemic becomes very real to her incubator. There has to be some way to raise funds and work in advance, having bought a sufficient number of new buses and modern models — with a spacious interior, high-quality ventilation and do not require constant repair. Of course, this is not a cheap event, which involves a serious work of local officials and transportation companies and support from public authorities. But, in any case, it is not more expensive than hundreds and thousands of lives that so you can save!
