– last week, the pressure on the Russian currency resumed. USDRUB rose by about a ruble EURRUB added two. This weakening is easily associated with the new wave of foreign pressure, and with signs of apprehension investors. From the West, Russia received accusations of trying to steal the achievements of the vaccine COVID-19, and the threat of sanctions in connection with the implementation of the “Nord stream-2”. This forced investors to return to quotation award of sanctions risks. However, this temporary factor, not capable of a long time be the driver of the weakening of the ruble, as it is perceived by many as business as usual and low-intensity conflict.
a More sustainable negative impact on the ruble has a high demand for the currency from investors, who fear a new wave of selloff in the financial markets. Simultaneously, due to the low demand for raw materials and energy, and as a result of the quotas, the company reduced the export less and sell currency on the domestic market.
in addition, the Ministry of Finance in the budgetary rules have reduced the sale of foreign currency, which reduced support for the rouble.
From the Bank of Russia also continue to be dovish signals. The Bank’s management are made transparent hints of willingness to once again cut the rate on July 24. This reduces the attractiveness of assets in rubles to foreign investors prefer the strategy of carry trade (buy assets with higher interest rates and selling – low).
at the same time, oil was stuck in the range of 42-43,5 dollars per barrel Brent, experiencing obvious difficulties with further growth. Technically this “glass ceiling” for the stock looks a harbinger of likely sales. But new highs in the number of infections with coronavirus in the world is alarming commodity markets, bringing new life to doubts about the strength of recovery in demand. Simultaneously, OPEC+ is preparing to increase production in August. The growth in the supply of oil with increased uncertainty around the growth in demand stopped the rally of oil.
More alarming – adjustment of the markets of China and the pressure on the stock of high-tech companies. Last week came the first signs of fatigue, investors rally when the leaders of growth of previous months began to feel “worse the market”. Traditionally this is a very bad background for the ruble.
Despite the fact that all of the above factors can hardly be the reason for the collapse of the ruble in the coming weeks, yet they shift the balance toward depreciation. A pair USDRUB noteworthy mark 73 and EURRUB – 83. In the case of strong growth above these levels of sales of ruble-denominated assets may increase, further increasing the pressure on the Russian currency and volatility returning to the Russian market. Calm m��amicable and domestic markets, in contrast, is able to return the interest to the ruble, after all, still keep a long-term bet on the fall of the ruble – a very expensive lesson.
