the Russian currency was under threat of collapse. Too many factors pushing the ruble into the abyss: it is planned to increase oil production by OPEC members+, the threat of re-emergence of a pandemic, the new sanctions attacks from Washington. This is exacerbated the internal problems: the unenviable macroeconomic indicators, the payment of dividends in favor of foreign investors plus the high probability of further reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank. Meanwhile, the ruble is now, and so is the second among the outsiders of developing currencies in the world, trailing only the Indonesian rupiah. And leadership in this doubtful rating in the neighborhood.
Quotes of the ruble continues to lose ground in the financial markets. Only in last day of official trading session last week on July 17 against the dollar, “wooden” lost nearly 35 cents and dropped to the level at 71.9 rubles, and compared to the Euro lost 45 cents and fell to 81.7 ruble. So much of this year the ruble fell only in the short spring period of negative oil prices.
Oil and now caused a major blow to the exchange rate of the Russian currency. From 1 August members of the independent mining organization OPEC+ is going to increase its production of “black gold” at 2 million barrels a day. Accordingly, the oil market will become larger and the price of a barrel will fall — that, in fact, is already happening, although not critical rate. However, the closer August 1, the greater the risk of falling of the barrel and, therefore, threats to the ruble.
the Position of the ruble may weaken and the next decision of the Board of Directors of the Central Bank’s key rate, expected on Friday, July 24. Most likely, there will be rate reduced to 4%. And the lower the rate, the less support the ruble by foreign investors. “If the rate is further reduced, the national currency, given the simultaneous growth of oil production world producing countries, in this case, it is not big trouble, warns analyst CC “Finam” Sergey Drozdov. — This spring, when there had been similar conditions, a barrel fell below $20. The risk of facing similar trends can deprive the ruble exchange even a minute of respite and the withdrawal of Russian banknotes in the list of leaders in the gap in the world markets”.
playing Against the ruble and the weak macroeconomic indicators of Russia. “We should not forget that the ruble is currently listed among the most lagging of the currencies of developing countries. If at the beginning of the year the dollar was offered only 61 rubles, now its price is almost 20% higher. Domestic macroeconomic patterns — the fall in real disposable incomes of Russians for the second quarter of 8% unemployment to 6.2%, continued decline in industrial production — continue to Stoke the course Ross��iscoe currency — sure investment strategist UK “Arikapital” Sergey Suverov. Most circumstances give reason to assume that even the rate of 75 rubles per dollar closer to October will look attractive.” He advises to prepare for the worst. According to him, quotes “green” in the autumn will put new lows, dropping deeper than those levels observed in April–may at the peak of coronaries.
