By June, the rate of growth of outstanding mortgage debt grew by five times from January to may, the volume of loans on which borrowers stopped paying, increased by 2.6 billion rubles, according to “Debt Advisor”. A year earlier over the same period, the volume of overdue debt rose to 541 million rubles.
In absolute terms, with an average loan size of 2.3 million of new delinquent mortgages mean that another 1,100 families in the country in the short term will have to part with their homes, says Director General of “Debt consultant” Dennis Feldman.
“In the figures outstanding mortgage debt is recorded defaults on loans that have come in banks of 90 or more days ago, the housing market is currently faced with only the defaults of March. In April and may, the creditworthiness of borrowers declined even more markedly. Banks have adapted their restructuring programmes to the new crisis conditions, many borrowers used the provided grace periods. But will they be able to restore solvency – the big question”, – said Aksenov.
In rouble mortgage loans in arrears by June 1 reached 66,1 billion, slightly higher values at the beginning of 2020 (63.8 billion rubles), said in response to the Bank of Russia on request “Russian newspaper”. On March 1, 2020, the volume of overdue payments amounted to $ 64.8 billion rubles, said the Bank.
the Peak values of the outputs of the first delinquency on mortgage loans was observed in April and the first half of may, which was associated with the establishment of restrictive measures noted in the Bank of Russia. So, the part of the borrowers could not timely pay on the loan because of lower incomes and lack of opportunities to visit the Bank’s office.
At the same time leading indicators (primarily output coefficient of the first delay) show a reduced risk since the second half of may to values observed before the introduction of the regime of self-isolation, say in the Central Bank. If the economic situation does not deteriorate, it should be expected that the frequency of occurrence of overdue loans at the level of a pandemic, expect the Bank of Russia.
the level of risk on the mortgage portfolio after the lifting of restrictions in General and in particular on the segment of restructured loans while difficult, it is unclear how things will go in the economy and in the fight against coronavirus in the second half. At the same time, the mortgage portfolio shows a high resilience to macroeconomic shock of a pandemic, allowing you to count on a high return rate of the contracts in a working portfolio after completion of vacation credit, hopefully at CB. While significant growth in overdue debt on mortgage loans now all the same is not observed, added to the Bank of Russia. The regulator attributes this to the relatively high quality of the mortgage portfolio.
rising defaults on mortgages – a natural effect of the pandemic, agrees the Director of Department of mortgage lending SMP Bank Natalia konyahina. In her opinion, the negative effect of the pandemic, the mortgage market will be felt until the end of the year. “Next year, according to forecasts, the situation is equalized. The mortgage crisis we do not expect,” – emphasizes konyahina.
In her opinion, already taken measures to support borrowers and of the banking market at the moment enough. Thus, the borrowers who have a significantly reduced income, you can still use the “vacation credit”, the right to defer loan payments for up to six months. Private restructuring offer and the banks themselves. According to the Bank, from March 20 to June 30, the banks received about 260 thousand cases of restructuring of mortgage loans, of which satisfied about 110 thousand.
