the conflict on the border of Armenia and Azerbaijan claimed the lives of 4 12 the Armenian and Azerbaijani military. While Baku and Yerevan say about the destruction of strongholds, tanks and drones of each other. “MK” has decided to find out how Armenia and Azerbaijan are ready to transition from artillery duels to full-scale war.
the parties to the conflict accuse each other that on 12 July, they resorted to provocations on the border, wanting to switch people’s attention from internal problems to external. In particular, the fight against coronavirus have undermined the credibility of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev or Nikol Pashinian (depending on who says), and he, not wanting to lose power, moved their troops into battle.
in Fairness it should be noted that Baku and Yerevan are really very badly damaged from fighting the coronavirus. If Georgia was able to fight back a little blood, Armenia and Azerbaijan still did not refuse extraordinary measures. In this sense, their economic potential is undermined equally.
However, Armenia’s starting position was initially worse than that of Azerbaijan. First, it is almost complete blockade. Secondly, it does not have the airbag from oil and gas revenues.
as for GDP, it’s not so simple as it might seem at first glance. In 2019, GDP per capita in Armenia and Azerbaijan were about the same: 4,528 thousand dollars 4,689 thousand dollars. However, equality is ensured due to the difference in population of the two republics. If in Armenia lives a little less than 3 million people in Azerbaijan – a little more than $ 10 million. The total gross domestic product of Armenia in 2019 was $ 13,444 billion dollars, and Azerbaijan 47,171 billion dollars. In addition, Baku is spending on defense 2,267 billion dollars, and Yerevan – 658 million dollars.
Experts told the “MK” as the economies of the two countries are ready for war:
Grant Mikaelian researcher at the Caucasus Institute:
Armenia has certain foreign currency reserves, but they are not as large as Azerbaijan. Accordingly, the Yerevan more vulnerable by the economic crisis. However, the Armenian economy is gradually preoriented for export, so it becomes more secure.
as for Azerbaijan, at the beginning of the year he had about 50 billion in reserves, of which about 44 billion oil money and 6 billion and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank. Given the severity of the current economic crisis caused by the struggle against the coronavirus, Baku has enough reserves to hold out not less than 5 years.
However, if we are talking about political and military crisis, the situation may be different. �� the one hand, we don’t know how will the relations of Azerbaijan with its neighbors, but if we assume that the problem will be only with Armenia, Baku will be able to conduct an intense war for six months. On the one hand, it’s a lot, but on the other hand, in 1990-ies war lasted two years. This means that, theoretically, the Azerbaijanis do not have enough money for the whole distance. But this arbitrary assumption, most likely, no one will fight for so long.
Vladimir Novikov, head of the Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute:
first, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been seriously affected by coronaries. In Yerevan, he has hit harder than in Baku. In both countries extend quarantine measures and it is unclear when the authorities plan to quit with quarantine measures. In private conversations Armenian experts generally say that they can keep until the end of 2020.
as for funding the war, then Azerbaijan has more opportunities for this. However, Baku ends the so-called “contract of the century” with the oil companies. In particular, Chevron left, rumors about the withdrawal of ExxonMobil. The result may be only BP. Not accidentally, Azerbaijan began to look for oil consumers around the world. The myth of Caspian oil began to crumble.
In this regard, Armenia and Azerbaijan can actually be beneficial to the outbreak of border conflicts, to cover the economic crisis of foreign policy. While none of the parties will not proceed to full-scale war. At least nobody is interested.
However, as the spiraling of the conflict, the situation could spiral out of control. The situation can be compared to the two gentlemen who brought the matter to a duel, while not wanting it. They agree to miss, but one of them accidentally hits and kills a rival.
