Official statistics shows that all regions of Russia have passed the peak incidence COVID-19 and are now in the stage of extinction of the epidemic, told RIA Novosti expert in statistics and modeling, Center for economic research Aghasi Tavadyan.
"you Can say that in all regions of Russia passed the peak, but to talk about the rapid extinction of the epidemic is impossible. In different regions, things are different," he said.
"If you look at the map, you see what the dynamics of the spread of the disease. In the regions, painted "green" color, recorded a significant reduction of morbidity, "yellow" shows the regions with a slow decline in the "light red" regions, the status satisfactory, is expected to decline, "red" regions are still in the area of turbulence (the index of incidence greater than one – ed.)", – said Tavadyan.
As explained Tavadyan, the regions are grouped by color, which correspond to different values of the index of incidence – R. R is the index of the reproduction of infection, which is calculated according to the methodology of the CPS. It shows how many people are infected from one patient COVID-19. If the index is less than unity, then the incidence of fading, if more, then can begin to grow.
A mathematician said that the group "green" regions included: Magadan, Moscow, Bryansk, Tver, Kursk, Belgorod, Voronezh and Penza region, Karachay-Cherkessia, Adygeya, Tuva, Transbaikalia, Primorye territory, Dagestan, Kalmykia and Chechnya.
According to the calculations Tavadyan to the "yellow" regions are: Novgorod, Tula, Lipetsk, Saratov, Ryazan, Chelyabinsk, Yaroslavl, Vladimir, Rostov, Tambov, Ivanovo, Leningrad, Irkutsk, Volgograd, Nizhny Novgorod, Kaluga and Ulyanovsk regions, as well as North Ossetia, Chukotka, Kabardino-Balkaria, Karelia, Ingushetia, Tatarstan, Republic of Altay, Kamchatka, Yakutia, Mordovia, Mari El, Stavropol, Moscow, Krasnoyarsk territory and the Khanty-Mansi Okrug.
The scientist joined the group "light red" regions: Kaliningrad, Arkhangelsk, Smolensk, Novosibirsk, Amur, Tomsk, Astrakhan, Omsk, Kostroma, Sverdlovsk, Tyumen and Vologda regions as well as Bashkortostan, Buryatia, Chuvashia, Khakassia, St. Petersburg, Yamalo-Nenets Okrug, Krasnodar, Perm and Khabarovsk edges.
"To the regions with the still difficult situation (for "red" – ed.) should be referred Orenburg oblast, Komi Republic, Moscow, Oryol oblast, Murmansk oblast, Samara oblast, Kemerovo region, Kirov region, the Udmurt Republic, Nenets Autonomous Okrug, the Jewish Autonomous region, Crimea, Sakhalin oblast, Kurgan oblast and Altai Krai", – said Tavadyan.
In addition, the scientist noted a number of region��in where statistics can be required.
"the Data are given for seven-ten days remain virtually unchanged, which is not typical for the dynamics of the spread or extinction of the disease. Also doubt negligible mortality, which is typical for countries and regions where was observed the most severe quarantine. However, none of the subject of Russia it to such an extent was not observed", – said Tavadyan.
The regions in which statistics needs to be verified, Tavadyan related: Orenburg, Kostroma, Irkutsk, Murmansk, Voronezh, Tyumen, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kirov, Kemerovo and Volgograd region, Chechnya, Primorye, Krasnodar Krai, Buryatia, Khabarovsk Krai, Bashkiria and Udmurtia.
