The negative macroeconomic situation forces developers of industrial real estate to be careful: advisers expect the volume of commissioning of warehouses this year in the Moscow region by almost a third due to the postponement of the commissioning of the objects. But growth in the share of vacant land or fall in rental prices, market participants do not predict. To respond quickly to changing market conditions, avoiding the fall of the main indicators that helps developers short construction cycle warehouses.The volume of warehouse property in the Moscow region by the end of 2020 could reach about 700 thousand square meters, a decrease of 30% compared to the previous year and becoming the smallest in 2016. This forecast in its study makes Knight Frank. Director of Department of warehouse and industrial real estate at Knight Frank Konstantin Fomichenko explains that this dynamic is largely due to the fact that the discovery of the objects was moved from the end of 2019, many projects were in advanced stage of readiness. The expert adds that in the second half of the developers will take the surrender of their warehouses for the next year, guided by the macroeconomic situation.The crisis forced developers to warehouses to be even more cautious: according to estimates by CBRE, the share of speculative construction, without having to search for the customer in the total input in the first half was 18%, down 10 percentage points compared to the same period last year. But this position is shared by not all consultants. Director of Department of warehouse real estate at Colliers International Anton Repin formulates a more positive Outlook, hoping that this year’s entering warehouses in the Moscow region will exceed 800 thousand sq. m. in Addition to the negative macroeconomic environment for developers, he said, will positively impact the Central Bank reducing the key rate, making it more accessible Bank lending. At the same time, the expert continues, some market participants may try faster to pass objects, trying to find tenants for established on the market high rate: 4.1 thousand rubles per sq m per year is the maximum value in 2015.Despite the projected drop, analysts Knight Frank really call the warehouse real estate market, are the least affected by the crisis. In favor of this thesis speaks to the General decline in vacant space, according to calculations by the consultants in the first half of the year the index decreased by 0.4 percentage points compared to the same period last year, to 2.3%. At Knight Frank expect positive dynamics on the warehouse market will continue: according to forecasts of analysts, the vacancy rate for the year will be reduced to 2.1%.Head of research JLL VladikAB Fadeev sees no prerequisites to the growth of vacancy: demand from the tenants remains high. He adds that developers of warehouse real estate are in an advantageous position due to the short construction cycle, which in some cases is less than six months. This allows them to respond quickly to market signals. Under these circumstances, Mr. Fadeev waiting and growth in average rental rates.Alexandra Mertsalova
