If doctors talking about a possible coming second wave of the coronavirus evasively, the experts of the housing market is not in doubt: it will be. And build forecasts on the basis of this condition. Analysts gave forecasts how it will change the prices of apartments and houses in the next two years and will begin when massive defaults on mortgage at 6.5%.
emerging from the isolation the Russians all as a dream of expanding housing and the “house in the village.” The majority of citizens to realize your desires into reality can not — because of the lack of material possibilities. However, they are trying to join to the good life — and what happens?
In late March — April, whether due to distrust banks, or on the basis of domestic concerns, a lot of people took the money from the accounts. As a consequence, taking into account projected inflation, given the return on deposits, investments into real estate again becomes relevant. And consultation come the people who have no money even for a down payment, with the provisional salary is 40 thousand rubles, but they want to get a mortgage at a low rate. At best they have an apartment within the ring road. A lot of people. And this is the reality of today — before such was not, — says the managing partner of the consulting group “Irbikon” Irina Vishnevskaya.
Banks, however, are not willing to give preferential mortgages to all and Sundry. The jobs crisis, rising unemployment, reduced incomes, bankruptcy of employers — all this will be exacerbated by year-end. The tightening of requirements for borrowers already happened. Banks now analyze the behavior of borrowers during the isolation and prepare new measures. “There is an active review of pricing (pricing). Change much differentiation between clients with a complete set of documents and a high barrier to entry and customers with a low payment and lack of the documents”, —said the head of Department of development of mortgage lending of the Bank Artem Ivanov. “We can expect has already passed many banks scenario: mortgage lending sooner or later, usually after 2-2. 5 years, leading to defaults and volume of problem assets, — adds Irina Vishnevskaya. — Since we are already not the first time we pass this cycle, it makes sense now to seek a reasonable balance.”
talking about people with enough to improve the housing amount of money, many sent to udalenku staff realized the necessity of study, child and parent zones. They try to choose an already technologically advanced residential developments, with a fenced yard, with the possibility of walking, doing sports. And consider apartments with a minimum size of 70 square meters. Interested in purchase spacious housing within the capital to the Third transport��of ICA in may — early June jumped by 50%. Browsing people and proposals for suburban real estate (150 square meters) and villas. The highest demand, obviously, applies to housing cost up to 15 million rubles. Real estate is more expensive than 25 million rubles enjoys low demand, saving and a willingness of sellers to bargain (about 5%), which is not surprising.
what is Surprising: the pandemic of major adjustments in the construction budget is not made. “In April there was a noticeable increase in the prices of some building materials due to interruptions in logistics. Rose metal, window profiles, elevators. But the critical boost that was in 2014, when the cost of some materials go up by 20%, not now. All rose in the range of inflation. Concrete and rebar, for example, haven’t increased in price”, — says Irina Vishnevskaya.
the timing of the input of new housing experts argue, rather, optimistic. And stopped the construction about a month and a half. About the same period, within two months, will be delayed the timing of delivery of objects. The main thing is to not disappoint the weather. In regions that do not stop the construction, for example in Saint Petersburg is a major change in terms is not expected. But the timing of delivery of housing in the operation can be delayed — a lot depends on the authorities. Are they willing to work in hard mode to be able to make the projects, delivery of which is scheduled for autumn, at the end of the year? There is another serious factor that can break the already formed plans. “If another wave — or rather, when will the second wave — whether it will be powerful from the point of view of the restrictive measures? It will be a serious test, — continues Irina Vishnevskaya. The first wave has shown some serious technical problems have arisen from rosreestra and broken multifunction centers (MFCS), as they were of the deal. Therefore, if the technical problems now, at a time when it works, will be solved, the Outlook is positive. If the coronavirus is more powerful restrictive measures, the job of any manufacturer of construction materials, any construction site can be suspended or restricted”.
whatever it was, frightening price forecasts for the next two years, analysts do not give — they are simply nowhere to take. “Since April we see a hole: there is no transaction, no registrations, no sales. Until mid-October will be implemented pent-up demand. If in September-October it is expected the second wave of the epidemic, I hope, the experience of the first wave will be taken into consideration. And then prices will rise. And their growth, we, as market experts, we see the following: by the end of 2021 apartments in new buildings of Moscow will rise in price by 10-15%, on secondary market — on 15-20%, country real estate for two years will grow by 15-20%. Do not forget that the rising cost of housing is constrained by the burden of a property tax based on cadastral value”, — emphasizes the analyst.
