the Situation on the Russian labor market because of the coronavirus, unprecedented, but not catastrophic. In this opinion agreed the round table organized by the editors of “MK” in an online format.
it is Clear that the pandemic and camisole imposed on employment of a colossal imprint, many reformatting parameters, changing priorities. Members of some professions have been in great demand, and some dramatically felt the uselessness. But overall, according to our interlocutors experts, Russia does not expect neither mass unemployment nor the sharp fall in wages and income, nor the irrevocable extinction of professions.
the discussion was anatoliperchikovich Professor of the Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation Alexey Prong, doctor of Economics Sergey Smirnov (HSE) and the Executive Director of HR of the company (search and selection of personnel) Staffwell mark Amelin.
All the loud statements about the fact that after the pandemic, the labor market will never be the same was premature, says Barb. Yes, according to Rosstat, the number of registered at the labor exchange of the Russians who have lost work, increased 2.8 times in comparison with the previous year. However, we do not know the exact number of unemployed in the grey sector. The problem is that a significant portion of workers employed in the service sector (hair salons, restaurants), worked informally, without registration of labour relations. For example, many hairdressers, losing a place in the workshop, they began to accept clients at home. That is, at the labour exchange they are not, the workplace they are officially lost, but the income retained.
At the same time, says Alex Barb, in April-may in the budget and public sector layoffs were even less than at the end of last / beginning of this year. But in General the damage to the labor market associated with the pandemic, is quite small. In the opinion of the analyst, this autumn the economy will claim all those people that spring has registered in the employment centers. Business rebuilt, there is lots of new vacancies (including in the sphere of small and medium enterprises), and as a consequence jobs. Respectively, set by the President Putin’s goal is the end of the year to return to the labor market in the pre-crisis condition is achievable.
Indeed, there is no disaster, I agree Sergei Smirnov, but the employment resuscitated later – perhaps by the summer of 2021. Expert comes at least from the situation with the tourist season, which, in his opinion, Russia is ruined. This means that hotels will be huge problems with occupancy, and restaurants – with the attendance.
nor is it known what our General unemployment (on methodology of the International labor organization), because in the period camisoles��and statistics could not carry out their traditional surveys face to face.
If we talk about the pace of recovery of the labor market, much will depend on savings from income and of changes in their structure. And there are some promising moments. It is obvious that the considerable part of Russians Willy-nilly spending money on entertainment, has not walked in the Shoe, and other stores, thereby saving some financial resources. This is a powerful factor in the restoration of consumer demand, and then on up the chain, and the sectors of trade, services.
According to Mark Amelin, certain problems in the Russian labor market began to coronaries. So, in February, about 12% of employers have stopped recruiting employees. And at the end of March (the pandemic came to our country about the middle of this month) the number of such companies has jumped to 40%. Many have stopped recruiting new employees.
But there are a number of sectors where narrow specialists are always in demand. For example, marketing, retail, service, shopping, in particular, refrigerated food storage. Moreover, the pandemic has served as a breeding ground for professions such as a smart home designer, creative curator.
Summarizing the discussion, our interviewees noted that coronaries, causing a series of painful blows to working Russians (dismissals, reductions, reduction of salaries) at the same time and opened up many Windows of opportunity related to remote work, computer literacy and mastery of new competencies.
