The construction industry, which is one of the largest consumers of oil and gas chemistry, could fall in volumes by almost 50% in 2021, and its recovery will take at least two years. Such calculations were presented by the structure of the “Metafraks” manufacturer of synthetic resins and insulating the “Metadynea”, evaluating the negative scenario with a slow suppression of the pandemic. In the timber industry the decline in production could reach 30%. In the optimistic scenario, the construction industry could be reduced next year by 16%, whereas in the timber industry will begin a gradual recovery.Most confident on the background of a pandemic feel of the pharmaceutical and food production, and most of all affected the construction and automotive industries, follows from the study of “Metadynea” (enters into group “Metafrax”, which is one of the main producers of methanol and formalin in Russia). “Metadinea” — the largest Russian producer of synthetic resins which are used in construction, for the production of thermal insulation (mineral wool) and various wood-based panels.The company, a decline in construction by the end of 2021 could range from 16% for the optimistic scenario that assumes the containment of a pandemic, up to 49% with a negative development of events. In the Russian construction industry, as one of the most sensitive to the decline of welfare of the population and instability in the economy, even under the most favorable circumstances will not be able to recover earlier in 2022.Market insulation in the positive scenario will remain positive dynamics with growth to 9%. In a negative scenario, the seasonal factor will only temper the decline of the market total for 2020-2021 years may be 10% to 34 million cubic meters, compared to 37 million cubic meters in 2019.In the forestry sector “of metadinea” waiting in 2021 production growth of 7% in a positive scenario, and decrease to 6% with a slower recovery. The market for plywood with a favorable scenario will grow in the second quarter of 2021 at 1% or even faster by increasing exports subject to an early exit from the crisis, the United States and Europe (up to 350 thousand cubic meters by the end of 2021). In the negative scenarios of the pandemic market of plywood will fall by 20% (up to 294 thousand cubic meters). While both options provide for the peak falling in July 2020, 15% and 30% YTD respectively. When the containment peak incidence in 2020 will be in October and will be 17%, while delayed recovery prolonged recession to a maximum drop of 25% in December year-todate. In 2021, depending on the development of the situation lower production range from 16% to 36% (775 million and 624 thousand cubic meters, respectivelyo).Based on dynamics of the previous economic crises of 2008 and 2014, according to the calculations of “Metadynea”, you can expect the maximum falls in the sectors during the first three to four months after the start of the downturn in the economy (respectively, in July—August of the current year). As explained “Kommersant” Deputy General Director for strategy and investments of “Metadynea” Levon garslyan, the decline in one sector leads to a “Domino effect” in others. Now, he said, the duration and depth of the recession will depend on the intensity of the spread of the virus, effectiveness and duration of restrictive measures and measures to support the population and business. According to the top Manager, the state in the current situation is to stimulate demand, and to help businesses through the current subsidies for investment loans for projects, and support during quarantine when the enterprise is idle or have it significantly reduced download.Pandemic, and a reduction in methanol prices had a serious impact on the business of “Metafrax Group” — the fall issue is 15-40% depending on the product and geography of deliveries. At the same time, according to Mr. Harsley, in a number of areas, including some types of resins and fine chemicals, demand remains at least at the level of original forecasts. With the rapid recovery of economies of foreign countries in the “metadinea” I look forward to the accelerated growth of demand for the company’s products in the summer that will help to offset the decline of sales in other areas by the end of 2020. Levon Harlan expects that under a positive scenario of development of the situation “of metadinea” can reach pre-crisis level of sales of the main product — synthetic resins — in the first half of 2021.As noted by Igor Tyablikov of Rupec, demand for methanol in the world is slowly recovering. So, if first-quarter fall in imports of methanol in China amounted to 20%, with the recovery in industrial production in the country should expect a significant increase relative to the beginning of the year. The price in this market began to grow in may. The demand for MTBE (octane additive) will recover along with demand for fuel, and it will also determine the removal of quarantine restrictions and the effectiveness of the fight against the pandemic, including “new waves”. In the longer term, the analyst believes, the growth of demand for methanol may influence the low level of oil prices (and therefore the price of raw materials for the production of methanol) as the main driver of demand growth will be increasing consumption in China.Olga Matushenko
