Especially for “the Russian newspaper” mark Goikhman, principal analyst at TeleTrade, called main events that will affect the ruble to the end of this week:
– Brent Quotes, – pays attention the expert, – rose to a very strong technical line of resistance at 43-43,5 dollars per barrel – the highest level since March of 2020. To overcome it is difficult without additional strong drivers.
So on Monday and oil prices retreated to the $ 42 level, and the ruble strengthening was suspended last week to 69 rubles per dollar. On Tuesday, June 23, is not expected to be significant events for the market. Probably the dollar will be in a narrow range of 68.8-69.9 ruble.
Next on the ruble may affect some locally important events. First of all, the market will continue to focus on the nuances of the pandemic, and the complexities of geopolitical events.
in Addition, on Wednesday, June 24, will publish weekly figures of oil reserves in the US, which traditionally affect the oil quotes. Can be important and published on Thursday, 25 June, data on US GDP. It is expected that he fell in the 1st quarter by 5 percent. If the fact will be better than forecast, this could be the reason of strengthening of dollar in the foreign exchange market, including the ruble.
Besides, 25 Jun planned a series of speeches by members of the US Federal reserve and the European Central Bank. They are capable of, in case of unexpected statements, to influence the movement of the dollar and the Euro.
At the same time, published on Thursday indicator of the international reserves of the Central Bank of Russia is unlikely to significantly impact on the ruble. For market participants, the usual high and almost unchangeable value. Their volume of 18 June was 570,8 billion dollars and probably will not undergo significant changes.
overall, during the week, likely saving the not-too-high ruble volatility. Current most possible range of motion of the currency is is 68.2-70.4 rubles per dollar, and 76.4 – 79.3 ruble per Euro.
