Attention to Belarus these days chained in the first place, the political events associated with the struggle for power in the Republic. But in the background there is another “gas war” between Minsk and Moscow, connected with the unwillingness of the Belarusian side to extinguish its debt to “Gazprom” and the desire to achieve price discounts for Russian “blue fuel”. In such a scenario the energy relations between the two allied countries were formed in previous years. But then the two presidents eventually sat down at the negotiating table and found a compromise: as a rule, Moscow agreed to lower prices, and in return received some political dividends. This time it could go the other way: against the background of difficult for Lukashenka in the political situation the Kremlin could refrain from compromise, and play to win.
In recent days, the degree of the gas confrontation between the neighbouring States increase. President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko said that the world has enough natural gas, and the country can find alternative to supplies from Russia. In parallel, followed by leakage from the high corridors of the Moscow that Gazprom allegedly can stop gas supplies to Belarus starting July 1, because existing Minsk’s debt to the company. Later, however, refuted the Russian Ambassador in Belarus Dmitry Mezentsev, but the sediment, as they say, remained.
Recall that in late may, the head of “Gazprom” Alexei Miller said that the company will be ready to start negotiations on gas supplies to Belarus from 2021 only after settlement with the country’s debt for gas, which is estimated at $165,6 million In response the energy Ministry of Belarus said that they have no debts for gas, but between entities there are differences in the definition of it with calorie. Thus, the full commencement of negotiations prevents the aforementioned debt, which some require, others do not recognize.
against this background, the Belarusian authorities insist on the need to revise the price of Russian gas for 2020, which defines its “correct and equitable”. Earlier, Lukashenko said that in the current environment, the price of Russian gas to Minsk should be $40-45 dollars per thousand cubic meters taking into account logistics, not $127 dollars as it is now.
the flames of the gas confrontation splashed big politics: on August 9 in Belarus scheduled the presidential election. In their run-up to Lukashenko, apparently, is not averse to play the Russian card. Anyway, that’s what the observers connect scandal with “Belgazprombank” – daughter of the Russian “Gazprom” and “Gazprombank”.
How can the events develop on the gas front? Unlike past years, now not all the newly-fallen snow “MK” experts W��ut truce in terms of compromise. Moscow today all trumps on hands. The fact that Belarus is not going to be able to quickly switch to the purchase of gas from European suppliers. The owner of the main pipeline in Belarus is Gazprom. In order to buy gas from trailers, will have to build a new pipe — while this seems improbable scenario. To help Minsk could come to Poland and organize the supplies in the reverse mode through the gas pipeline “Yamal-Europe”, but his operator is Gazprom, which surely will not allow such a scenario. The use of alternative routes from the Baltic States or Ukraine will not be able to give Minsk a welcome saving compared to laid down in the contract with Russia of $127 USD per thousand cubic meters.
“Russia is clearly in no hurry to make concessions to Minsk, demanding the implementation of the signed documents, as noted by many responsible persons, including the Minister of foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov and Minister of energy Alexander Novak,” — says the head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. The expert believes that the new aggravation of relations between Russia and Belarus is not in the interests of both countries consider themselves allies.
“Moscow is obviously not ready to compromise in fuel supplies, while Lukashenko does not agree to closer integration, which, in the opinion of the Belarusian side, affecting its political sovereignty,” – said “MK” chief analyst “TeleTrade” mark real. In his opinion, compromise is difficult now, and the parties ‘ positions hardened. The expert explains this clearly unfriendly steps by the Minsk – such as a criminal case in respect of “Belgazprombank” – “daughters” “Gazprom” and Gazprombank.
Head of Department of analytical researches “Higher school of financial management” Mikhail Kogan for its part, argues that when the pre-election agiotage in Belarus over, Lukashenko (unless, of course, he will retain his post) will go back on their word. “However, Moscow’s willingness to make concessions will depend on the future conduct of the President of Belarus and specific actions in relation to economic integration with Russia, the pace of which continues to leave much to be desired. The situation around the “BGB” further reduces the likelihood that Moscow will be configured to accommodate the wishes of Minsk”, – concluded the expert.
