will Decrease by 1 p. p. interest rates on deposits, said the head of Department of trading operations on the Russian stock market “freedom Finance” George Vashchenko.
Thus, the average maximum rate of the biggest banks may fall from the current 5 to 4%, this is not the limit. Although the key rate left at record low levels, but at the end of July may be even lower. In comments to the Central Bank’s decision contains no direct promise to continue to decline, but fairly and approach “to act according to circumstances”, specifies the Director for analysis of financial markets and macroeconomics UK “Alfa-Capital” Vladimir Bragin.
given the fact that Deposit rates are traditionally sensitive to the reduction of the key rate, increasing the risk of outflow of money from deposits, fear analysts Association of Russian banks. The outflow of funds of natural persons since the beginning of the crisis, although in may it’s magnitude decreased, and the Central Bank explained its seasonal fluctuations.
a Quick reduction of interest rates on deposits does not mean that depositors will run to withdraw money from banks, says Vashchenko. “Investors are the most conservative part of investors, – he said. – More than half of all Deposit accounts at credit institutions controlled by the state. For customers this is a decisive factor.”
the lower rates should stimulate the mortgage market, long-term loans, some banks have already announced to improve conditions on mortgage loans. Mortgages may until the end of the year to become cheaper than ever, the stakes will be 6-8%, says Vashchenko. The least cost will decrease credit card by 1%. the Greatest benefit, according to him, will receive the corporate sector: companies in the course of the year will be able to refinance more than 2.5 trillion of debt, saving more than 25 billion rubles And the debt will increase, becoming cheaper. “This money can be spent on business development, says Vashchenko. – You can expect a boom of transactions M&A, new investment projects. Would be willing to invest in startups”.
According to analysts of the Association of Russian banks, reduction of interest rates on loans may be less pronounced due to the fact that credit is becoming more risky against the backdrop of falling incomes and rising unemployment.
