The international energy Agency (IEA) jointly with the IMF has developed a “sustainable recovery” — it describes a set of economic activities for a three year term price of $3 trillion, which could restart the growth of the world economy on a low carbon basis and to prevent the resumption of growth of greenhouse gas emissions. Responding to such initiatives and given the uncertain prospects of the oil market, the revision of its development strategy and begin to say the world’s oil companies. In Russia about the reality of a low-carbon future, say most experts, noting the lack of an adequate response of the authorities to these challenges.”A plan for sustainable recovery,” the IEA and the IMF contains 30 measures, designed for three years. Its implementation could cost the global economy $1 trillion per year (0.7% of world GDP). It can result in an additional 1.1 percentage points (PP) increase the size of the global economy, save and create 9.1 million jobs and build a flexible and sustainable supply system. In addition, the result of the execution of the plan may be the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in the energy sector until 2023 at 4.5 billion tons. This will enable to prevent the resumption of global growth (in April, total CO2 emissions decreased by 16%, but in may jumped 5% in annual terms) and to fulfill the purpose of the Paris agreement to stabilize the rate of growth of average annual temperature on the planet.The plan, in particular, recommends policies and implementation of targeted investments in the following areas: accelerating the deployment of low carbon energy sources (especially wind and solar) in the expansion and modernization of electric networks; dissemination of clean transportation, electric and high speed rail transport; energy efficiency of buildings and appliances, as well as the efficiency of equipment in the food and textile industries; stimulating innovation in relation to the use of hydrogen batteries, storage of captured carbon, and small modular nuclear reactors.Although stimulating low-carbon development in direct funding for these purposes in the order of €1 trillion has become the core strategy of the EU to overcome the current crisis, according to analysts Bloomberg New Energy Finance, $509 billion “anti-crisis” money in the world was aimed to support carbon-intensive industries. Thus, according to analysts at McKinsey, the EU capital mobilization to Finance low-carbon projects in €75-150 billion could lead to the creation of gross value added in €180-350 billion, the appearance of up to 3 million new jobs and reduce carbon emissions by 15-30% by 2030. For developed economies investing $10 million in the renewables sector directly and indirectly withgets as 75 new jobs in energy efficiency — 77, and fossil fuels only 27 jobs, analysts say.Note that on June 15, CEO of BP, Bernard Looney, said that the crisis in the oil market and the pandemic will accelerate the transition to low-carbon development. He announced plans to declare in September this year about the strategy of rethinking the course of development of the company, involving the reduction of emphasis on oil and gas and the transition to renewable sources of energy. “We have revised our price forecast and plan to take more effort to carry out the plan of the Paris agreement, the more that renewable energy has become very attractive,” said Mr. Looney. Note that now all the strategic documents of the European oil giants are tested by third parties to the compliance with the goals of the Paris agreement.The inevitability of the world’s transition to low-carbon development recognized during the FBK Grant Thornton organized the discussion “Russia without oil: recipes for survival,” and Russian economists. So, the adviser General Director of OOO “Gazprom export” Andrey Konoplyanik recorded a change in the paradigm of global energy development in the developed countries that have moved from waiting the peak of proposals to the expectation of peak demand. He said the second stage of compression the competitive niche of oil with the increase in the number of players, and makes a conclusion about the long-term trend of price reductions for this raw material. “Russian production will slide down. We all remember the prediction of the Ministry of energy that by 2035, Russia will lose 40% of its production because of the quality of reserves in terms of invariant tax regime. Optimism there is no”— agrees to partner Rusenergy Michael Krutikhin. However, the General reaction of the Russian authorities on new trends remains a denial, concluded the participants of the discussion.Alexey Shapovalov
