Russian Minister of energy Alexander Novak in an interview with Bloomberg said that Russia is satisfied with the current prices, they are close to the budgeted 42 dollars per barrel Urals, but in the long run for our country guests will be the price in 50 dollars for barrel.
the Minister’s words clearly defined the priorities of Russia about the results it expects from the transaction OPEC+, but did not shed light on the position with respect to the renewal of the agreement on production cuts for another month. The oil market is now waiting for specifics. Information about what the participants are inclined to extend the current terms of the transaction, will push the barrel up quotes. As news about the beginning of the compensation for the partial performance of its obligations by Iraq, Nigeria, Angola and other countries, is not enough to reduce the oil production in may.
the Absence of such information, or the more explicit intention to move to a gradual increase of oil production since August of this year and also doubts about the willingness of all countries involved in the transaction, to comply with its conditions, leave the quotes at the current level or even bring them down. But, apparently, not for long, because the global balance of power in the market and the pace of recovery in demand, the meeting would have no effect.
According to the Director of group corporate ratings of an ACRE of Basil Tanurcova, considering that since the adoption of the decision on extension of the maximum reductions in July, oil prices almost not increased, it is possible that in the end the decision will be made on the extension of the maximum reduction at one month, but this decision can hardly be made within the framework of the monitoring Committee. In the best case you can wait for comments about the possibility of such extension in the future. It is doubtful that today’s meeting will have a significant impact on oil prices.
“In General, the crude oil market has entered a phase of consolidation, where the demand tries to catch up with the recent significant price increases,” – says chief strategist at commodity markets Saxo Bank OLE Hansen. From his point of view, a positive assessment of OPEC in relation to the implementation of the conditions of the transaction, its participants and the expectations of recovery of demand is now offset by statistics about the increase of U.S. inventories and the threat of rising shale extraction on 500 thousand barrels a day next month. In addition, the negative impact on the market by the fears of the second wave of the epidemic in the United States and China, as well as higher level of unemployment limiting the use of gasoline in the world.
That is, in today’s environment, in the long term on quotes of a barrel can affect only the fundamental factors, primarily the growth in oil demand in the world. The extension of the conditions of maximum contraction for another month will push prices up, but not the fact that they are there with��can stay for a long time.
