“the biggest shock” he called the drop in oil prices on the world market. After all, the domestic economy has remained dependent on exports of hydrocarbons, reminded Medvedev.
the Main negative effect is to be expected in the current year, whereas in the next economy will be able in General to adapt to new conditions, regardless of the dynamics of oil prices.
in addition, over the past twenty years Russia has survived three such attacks – as at the end of the twentieth century, and in 2008-2009 and in 2014-2015, said Deputy Chairman of the security Council. Thus, already have experience to determine the most effective measures to reduce the negative consequences.
the Second shock is associated with the spread of the coronavirus. It was the result of regulatory decisions by the state trying to slow the spread of coronavirus infection, said the author. And this “internal shock analogs are almost there, he said.
“Outwardly, it resembles the situation of the early 1990s, when the economic process had a separate economic entities, which led to the rupture of relationships, – said Medvedev. But this comparison is extremely conditional”.
the Current problems in the real sector of the economy, labour market, social sphere and the banking sector, according to him, are of a special character.
“fall Time may be limited by the retention period regulatory decisions, and the economic recovery will begin quickly enough, – concluded the Deputy head of the security Council. – Unless, of course, the new wave of the epidemic will lead to another round of forced limitations.”
the Third shock is associated with a reduction in foreign demand for a wide range of domestic goods due to the slowdown in the global economy. “A similar situation was observed in 2008-2009 during the global financial and economic crisis,” Medvedev recalled.
the Reduction of trade and world demand, according to him, is also largely a consequence of restrictive measures and the time lag between economic and logistics links. So – again – duration for this decline, suggested by the author, would be limited to the validity of strict quarantine measures, after which the demand will recover.
“But there is the threat of a new pandemic, which can cause the world economy a devastating blow, comparable only with the world wars,” writes Medvedev.
the Current unfavorable situation, in his opinion, could trigger a new financial crisis in one or more countries. And this, in turn, will put pressure on financial and currency markets of Russia and will cause additional decline in demand for Russian exports.
“the Probability of such a shock increases with time, and in 2021 the risk will be higher than in 2020. To this we must also be ready,” – says the article.
For animatedtion of economic life after a pandemic coronavirus will need huge funds, assistance is required as the global economy and individual countries, said Deputy Chairman of the security Council. He stressed the importance of the anti-crisis plan of economic recovery. “A required comprehensive support for citizens and companies, which will allow to avoid a sharp reduction in aggregate demand and supply, to prevent the growth of poverty,” said Medvedev.
He listed some of the principles of socio-economic policy in the first stage of opening of the economy. First and foremost, in his view, is the gradual removal of all restrictions. Secondly, it is the support of the people, which, in particular, must relate to employees and individual entrepreneurs. “Hence the need for labor law reform, including the Institute of remote employment”, – said the author.
Further – cutting costs, experiencing the company in connection with the conduct of the business. While small business may need additional measures of support at the time of the lifting of the quarantine.
“fourth, to further streamline regulatory and Supervisory activities, he said. – Fifth, the maximum possible in the current situation of the budget obligations, including investment”.
overall, the volume of state aid measures needs to be comparable to the extent of the losses of the economy and welfare of citizens. “But it is obvious that life will be more complicated and will make the inevitable adjustments even at the first stage of the crisis,” – said Medvedev.
