“In the next decade Asia Pacific will evolve under the influence of bipolarity, as China and the United States has no competitors. America’s allies no longer needed, but China is not yet ready for full-fledged allies in the region”, – said the Deputy Director, head of Center for Asia-Pacific studies IMEMO Alexander LOMANOV.
All the experts agree that the deterioration of relations between China and the US, aggravated by the pandemic coronavirus, discards the APR ago, from the Association of Asian option when every man for himself. “Since it is in connection with the APR born and matured the dream of the twenty-first century as “the Century of Asia”, then a big question is the probability of the materialization of this dream” – fears, Director of ASEAN Center at MGIMO Victor Sumsky.
“the Biggest concern I have is not the epidemic itself, but how countries respond to the epidemic, noted Professor of Economics at Hanyang University (South Korea) Hangul Khan. – The world may be pushed back several decades. For the first time ever we faced such a global quarantine that has cut off the supply chain and a very serious impact on the economic life of States.”
According to him, the restoration of supply chains will take a lot of time. At the same time, investors will be primarily thinking about security and not about the result of investments.
“the economy is now dominated by fear. The economy may slip into recession,” said founder and Director of the Foreign policy community of Indonesia Dino Pati Djalal.
Many Asia-Pacific countries will now have to primarily focus on the development of their own capabilities, predicts the Chairman of the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore, senior researcher school of social Sciences Singapore management University bilahari of Kausikan. In his opinion, the US and China weakened by the pandemic, and other countries in the region try to diversify risks by trying to keep good relations with Washington and Beijing, but at the same time, knowing what to expect in the first place on their own.
“There is a tendency towards de-globalization and security of supply – I agree Professor, faculty of political governance and the graduate school of media and management of the Japanese Keio University Yoko Hirose. – The state will pay more attention to increase their production capabilities, on cybersecurity, on their own supply chain”.
In her opinion, “de-globalization and the rise of nationalism in the future seem inevitable. It is necessary to establish new relations between States.”
At the same time, if we talk about bipolar Asia-Pacific region, there is no certainty that China, while inSEM its accelerated development in recent years, can equal in strength with the United States. It was noted by associate Professor of the School of advanced international and area studies, Deputy Director of the Center for Russian studies at East China normal University Xin Zhang.
“China is behind the US in economic and military parameters. He has no allies and is not a Messianic center of power. China has no ideology, he can offer the world”, he said.
While there is a fear that confrontation between Beijing and Washington will have a negative impact on the surrounding countries. “Both China and the US should be responsible and not to involve in their other problems. They should exercise restraint and act according to the rules,” said in this regard, the General Director of Institute of South China sea with the Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam Nguyen Hun a Dream.
with regard to the role of Russia, it is, according to the program Director of the club “Valdai” Timothy Bordachev, “can play a greater diplomatic role, developing relations with other countries, besides the U.S. and China.” While Russia will remain, according to him, the friend of China, just as Europe will remain a friend of the US, but Russia and Europe can seriously cooperate, including in the Asia Pacific region.
