Work on the rehabilitation plan of the government continues, it finished in the next few days should be expected, the process of discussing new measures to stimulate GDP growth will be synchronized with the preparation of the budget for the years 2021-2023, which, apparently, is conducted in a more busy schedule than it has been in years past. These are the main results of the meeting with President Vladimir Putin, the main issue was the implementation of existing packages of anti-crisis measures March—may 2020. In June, the White house may return to the idea of inclusion in the medium-term agenda sectoral initiatives — in working versions of the plan they were discussed in a limited way and mainly in terms of infrastructure. In addition, the President finally gave the supporters unaddressed stimulate GDP growth and government support the restoration, declaring these actions “populism”.A working meeting of the President with representatives of the government and the regions, as was assumed before, had to answer questions about the fate of government plan to support the recovery of economic growth, in early June (see “Kommersant” on 3 June) transferred from the White house for consideration in the Kremlin. But Vladimir Putin has preferred to discuss at the meeting approved the implementation of the “coronavirus” the volatility of the markets in March — early may, support packages is occupied most of the meeting. A discussion of how to grow the budget by origin of stimulus for more rapid economic recovery from the artificial coma (caused mainly by quarantine measures and the collapse of supply and demand), by June, already lost meaning: addition of limits to government spending (which also corrected) with the amounts of actual expenses and the growth opportunities of banks in credit and lending companies does little to assess the adequacy of the actions of the White house in crisis, the scale and structure of which is based on the April and may statistics, very different from the March expectation. Moreover, both packages must be integrated into reducible in the economy from mid-may 2020 national plan of post-crisis recovery, is for two years, the Association of these figures with a two-year forecasted GDP no one has taken.At the end of the meeting, the President briefly explained the words of economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov, stated that the plan, the main points of which are assigned to the President on 3 June, continues. According to Vladimir Putin, “the long-term agenda” will be discussed separately (obviously, in the coming weeks), and “with this in mind, will work on the budget priorities for the coming three years.” This clearly implies that the adoption of the plan of the Ministry of economy, at least in bliiiie days, not going to happen: the document is draft work in progress.In the standard annual work schedule of the Ministry of Finance of June — a period of fairly active preparation of the Federal budget for the years 2021-2023: ends the preparatory work and Foundation meetings on his basic design. For 2021, we will remind, has taken the principled decision to limit Federal spending costs this year. Considering the fact that June and beginning of July will also work on correction of these projects may budget timetable this year will be shifted for a few weeks: the White house and so obviously not configured at too fast a decision on the “recovery plan”, including in anticipation of data on the nature of the recovery in June 2020.On the basis of coming from the ministries initiatives of the government of Mikhail mishustina has already taken a decision in this regard at least on the discussion of the sectoral proposals, which, we recall, had played no role: the project, contrary to the standard in the last decade the logic of formation of such plans, is not going to entirely of “bricks” of the proposals by the ministries only in the financial-economic bloc of the White house. One reason for this approach is a clear orientation of the government on new infrastructure spending in 2020-2021 years as a stimulus for GDP growth. However, based on, for example, from the revival of “offshore” program, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev and discussing the White house special programs of the active development of microelectronics and the IT industry at the initiative of the Prime Minister, in the second stage of the plan preparation of an industry initiative, it also can appear, and the meeting on “long term priorities” can be devoted to them.The government has additional reasons not to rush into it with a plan, and they also discussed yesterday the President: according to the cited Maxim Reshetnikov and head FNS Daniel Egorov quite diverse figures related to real demand first two packages of anti-crisis support, the space for maneuver at the White house in some cases more than expected. For example, the may unemployment estimates (6% according to ILO) is a lot better than expected. In June there is a very rapid reduction in the number of jobs for which employers announced possible cuts. “If we are in April under various restrictions were 15 million jobs, to date, 5 million jobs are under various restrictions, and by the end of the week will be 2.5 million jobs,” Mr Reshetnikov said. FNS estimates revenue retail at 95% level of February, and the total amount of implemented payments to support the business sector — in 756 bn (0.65% of GDP), which is significantly less than expected. In such a situation would��three consent to all requests for support, on the one hand, will weaken its targeting (and Vladimir Putin yesterday clearly stated that conventional measures of support are considered by him as populism), and with another — will reduce ability to respond to secondary negative effects of the crisis (they are in the White house can only assume).Dmitry Butrin
