Sergey Drozdov, an analyst CC “FINAM” believes that this trend is on the strengthening of the ruble some time still continues. And especially for “the Russian newspaper” has given the forecast for exchange rates:
– a Pleasant surprise for stock markets, the expert explained, – there was data on the U.S. labor market, which increased investor confidence that the us economy is on a recovery path is much faster than previously expected.
Despite the earlier disappointing forecasts of experts, the number of jobs in may in the US increased by 2,509 million, while unemployment fell to 13.3 percent from a record 14.7 percent in April. In addition, significant support for the Russian currency have rising oil prices, including
the Russian export grade Urals. On Saturday, the member countries of OPEC transactions+ agreed on the extension of the transaction for the reduction of oil production in the amount of 9.7 million barrels per day by the end of July.
At the meeting in April were to be reduced by 7.7 million barrels in the second half and 5.8 million barrels on until the end of April 2022. Nevertheless, the participants decided to strengthen the effect of earlier reached agreements and concluded that in July prematurely bring to market an additional 2 million barrels of oil per day. And this decision has pushed international prices above $ 43 per barrel.
As noted after the meeting, the head of the energy Ministry of Russia Alexander Novak, currently the goal of the Alliance is to reinforce the impact of the transaction for the appearance of balance in the global market, reduce risk, and continuing uncertainty.
However, it should be noted that the decision of the largest oil producers is an anticipated event and is already largely incorporated in the market. And so in the short term future, the potential growth of prices on black gold for the most part exhausted.
However, the world economy, one after another gradually out of the coma coronavirus. In many countries the growth in the consumption of energy. If this trend will continue until the end of the year, we can see 50-55 dollars per barrel of Brent.
let me Remind you that the main factors that has a positive effect on the ruble, which traditionally serve the growing oil prices, inflow of foreign capital and a positive market environment in global financial markets.
Now these three pillars still stand on the side of the Russian currency, which after a lengthy consolidation can settle in the range 67,50-70 against the U.S. dollar.
