fears of rising cost of gasoline and diesel fuel are not random oil prices since the beginning of the year fluctuated in the range from 70 to 20 dollars per barrel, but the fears proved groundless. The price tags at the gas station of our country did not respond to the jump in the value of “black gold”. There is every reason to expect that this situation will continue until the end of this year.
“whatever the price of oil on the world market, the retail price of gasoline in Russia will not be higher than last year, indexed to the current inflation,” – said General Director of the IG “Petromarket” Ivan Khomutov.
According to the April forecast of the Central Bank the maximum level of inflation for the year 2020 will amount to 4.8%. On this basis, the average price of gasoline AI-92 can grow to 44.5 rubles, AI-95 – 48 rubles, AI-98 – to 54.6 rubles per liter. The average price of diesel fuel could increase to 50 rubles per liter.
As noted by Ivan Khomutov, the average price of AI-92 and AI-95 had not yet changed from the beginning of the year. While prerequisites for some of the growth has been in the price of oil at $ 35 per barrel. Now there is a fairly low net margin (profit) from trading with AI-92 in small wholesale and retail – only 900 rubles per ton as of may 28. Margin is defined as the difference between the price of gasoline at the gas station the ex-works price of fuel at oil refineries (refinery) less costs for delivery of product from refineries to petrol stations and the operating costs of the depots where petrol and gas stations. Normal income is about 2 300 rubles per ton. This means that sooner or later the owners of gas stations will try to raise prices at retail to “get” in terms of profitability. But, in any case, rising prices at filling stations will remain in the range of inflation – this is the ultimate level of growth determined by the state and strictly controlled by them, said Yoke.
Low-income retail and small wholesale due to the high price of gasoline at the refinery. If at the end of April, the income of the gas station was above average in may, the refinery has significantly increased prices. This was due to the increase in oil prices and, as a consequence, the cost of gasoline on the world market.
“But even at this level prices for gasoline Russian refineries are generating losses,” – said Ivan Khomutov. This loss may push them to further increase their selling prices. And this will further reduce the already low profit from trade in gasoline retail and create additional preconditions for the growth of fuel prices at filling stations.
Speaking about the different scenarios for the fuel market of Russia, Ivan Khomutov said that if oil prices hold at 40 dollars per barrel, the refinery selling prices can grow even stronger, and thus the preconditions for the growth of retail prices (within the limits of inflation) will be more. But if oil prices fall below $ 30 per barrel, then it is possible that retail prices will remain at current levels.
