So in short you can define the essence of the debate on the second online session “Primako readings.” Its theme was “China-USA: is there a threat of transformation of the emerging bipolarity in cold war 2.0?”. The conference was organized by national research Institute of world economy and international relations name of Yevgeny Primakov (IMEMO ran), and “Interfax”.
the US President is putting a lot of effort to create a coalition against China, started a conversation session presenter Mikhail Shvydkoy, special representative of Russian President for international cultural cooperation. Trump hopes that he will be able to attract Russia.
That this situation has to do with our country? May, offers a way moderator, “how the smart monkey, from the side to see how the two tigers fight”? The metaphor of the tiger is not just pop up during the discussion.
Deputy Director for scientific work, head of the Center for Asia-Pacific studies, IMEMO ran Alexander LOMANOV recalled the words of Mao Zedong about the paper tiger, said to the United States. Lots of growling, but will not do anything. However, as it turned out, not that he is weak. Nevertheless, China is ready to increase its economic muscles, continuing its reforms and concentrating them in the domestic market. According to Alexander LOMANOV, China will be able to achieve high economic growth, which was not given neither the United States nor the European Union.
What worries expert? The fact that China has nothing to lose in relations with the United States. Areas of common interests disappear and no new. There is a growing understanding that the point of no return is passed and it is necessary to look for new ways. But what? It is clear that China will not allow to govern themselves and their growth. It saves the efforts and the will for long-term competition with the United States. And here, said LOMANOV, we ought to remember the continuation of the quote about the tiger. Mao Zedong also said that he has teeth and claws. Even if all your teeth fall out – will remain claws.
What position to choose our country as to pass between the jets of the shower, which may befall the world during this rivalry? “Russia should understand what to fear and to hope, – said the expert. – The crisis can be transformed into opportunity.” In other words, it is necessary to look at everything from the perspective of their own interests, not only here and now but in the future.
U.S.-China relations – the main axis of international politics, immediately identified the priorities of the scientific Director of the Institute of USA and Canada studies Sergei Rogov. However, he did not share the view that China may take in the bipolar world, if one is formed, one of the poles in tandem with the United States. Especially with the same strong position as in the Soviet Union.
Sergei Rogov sees the future hierarchy of international relations is much more complicated. In the first echelon – the USA, China and the European Union. While the weakest position in this big three – the EU, withknow the expert. In the future, does not exclude that the EU may move to the second tier. If you can not cope with their problems that are so painfully exposed the pandemic.
And who will steer in the second tier version Rogova? Japan, Brazil, Russia, India. And last, the expert believes, has the potential to become a leading center in this tier.
However, this does not exclude the rivalry between China and the United States. The Chinese had money to spend on science. And in ten years or twenty Chinese technology will break forth, as at the time Japanese, predicts Sergei Rogov. In military terms, China is also growing, increasing nuclear capacity. And behind all of this Russia should be carefully monitored. “Competition without rules is dangerous,” warns the expert.
Yes, China is not yet ready to play the role of the Soviet Union, agreed the rector of Moscow state Institute of international relations (University) of the MFA of Russia, RAS academician Anatoly Torkunov. But he will strive for this, says the expert. The United States, especially a pandemic, are convinced that China is a strong economic competitor.
So the “game” – who’s who – will continue. And it will be drawn with other countries. In this situation of Russia, the academician, it is necessary to save a multi-vector policy, including in relation to India and Japan, but “not against China”. With China we need, on the one hand, to take the position of a strategic partner, and on the other to carefully discuss all issues with other countries, said the expert.
with regard to multipolarity, in the opinion Torkunov, the EU will strive to become one of the poles. And nothing is impossible. “We need to gain only strength in the economy”, – said the expert. And because of the EU we have good experience that can actively develop, the prospects are very good.
But from the USA and China of equidistance will not work. And the main thing here, as was graphically said, “to preserve the freedom of hands”. All participants supported the formula of dialogue of Russia and China, which led the last session “Primako reads” the President of the IMEMO ran, academician Alexander Dynkin. Never against each other and not always together.
