By the end of the year they reduced by 5.2%, but in 2021-m will return to growth, believe in the Academy.
the Real disposable incomes at the end of 2020 will fall by 5.2%, says the quarterly report of Institute of economic forecasting of RAS (Moscow, Russia). Such a decrease is expected for the first time since the 1998 crisis, however, when the drop was 16%. Evaluation of the Institute this year more pessimistic expectations of economic development 3.8%. However, according to both forecasts, in the medium term, incomes will rise. This is due to the low base effect and measures of state support.
As stated in the forecast of IEF RAS, in 2020, real disposable incomes will decline by 5.2 per cent. This marked decline is likely to be recorded for the first time since the 1998 crisis. But then, according to Rosstat, the decline was three times more. In nominal terms, the incomes of Russians this year will account for 62.9 trillion rubles.
the Current crisis hit harder in the segment of the population with average earnings employed in the service sector. This will be the main reason for this decline, says the report of the IEF. The document notes that a significant decline in demand for goods and services in the future even worse. This year dynamics of household consumption will be reduced to 6.2% and subsequent recovery is to wait until after the 2023 th.
overall, experts wounds were more pessimistic than the Ministry of economic development. According to the updated forecast by the Ministry of socio-economic development in real disposable incomes by the end of this year will shrink by 3.8%. The head of the Department Maxim Reshetnikov said that in the second quarter, this figure will fall to 6%, and no anti-crisis measures of the government would be 7.5 percent.
However, in a subsequent period, in 2022 and 2023 — according to the Ministry, the surplus citizens will be 2 and 2.6% (1.5 and 2.2% — in Moscow, Russia), respectively.
According to experts of the Institute, after the lifting of the quarantine needs to focus on restarting economic activity, the recovery in the first place the real sector. However, you will need a basic demand through system of government purchases and subsidized loans for purchases of Russians on domestically produced goods and housing, I think there. Acceleration of the economy will increase income and consumption of citizens, says one of the authors of the report, the Deputy Director of INP, Alexander Shirov. Ongoing state support will have its effect, but expect that they will launch a full-scale recovery, probably, is not necessary, he added.
the Crisis will also exacerbate existing problems in the labour market. By the end of 2020, the economy will reduce employment by 400 thousand hoursthe person that translates to an increase of unemployment by 300 thousand people, the report says. The fate of another 100 thousand in the document does not say. By 2023, nor the number of the employed (71.7 mln people) or unemployed (4,9%) will not return to pre-crisis levels, according to the IEF.
press service labor is not promptly answered the question of “Izvestia” about the received office action to support and improve the welfare of citizens in crisis. Earlier, on 11 may, the President announced unprecedented benefits for families with children. Then interviewed by “Izvestia” experts rate social package more than 350 billion rubles.
the Real disposable incomes will be reduced by 6.5−10%, taking into account changes in nominal money income of citizens and the level of inflation by the end of this year, says economist “BCS Premier” Anton Pokatovich.
In 2020, the nominal profit of Russians will shrink by 2-5%. The main decline will be observed in the II and III quarters of 15 and 6% compared to the same periods in 2019. In the structure of revenues in the specified period of time will seriously shrink components of remuneration and income from business activities. The reduction of the key components will be due to the strict quarantine, the departure of many SMEs and the increase in the unemployment rate in the country — said the expert.
He added that the return of real incomes in the zone of growth close to 3% next year will be a very difficult task.
whereas, in the opinion of the head of Department of analytical researches of the Higher school of financial management Mikhail Kogan, due to the low base this year, real disposable income of the population can reach a positive dynamics in 2021-m. However, complete recovery of speech is impossible, the expert notes.
on the Basis of expectations of economic development with unemployment at 5.7% on average for the year and reduce it to 5.4 percent next, it turns out that should increase the wages of those who retain work continues Michael Kogan. But given the cautious pessimism of business and upcoming bankruptcy, it is difficult to expect a rapid recovery of incomes from entrepreneurial activities and mass creation of new high-paying jobs. On the contrary, now many are faced with the decline of wages, at least in its premium component, he added.
