They will discuss the economic recovery plan worth more than 7 trillion rubles.
7.3 trillion rubles., the digitalization of the economy, reducing administrative barriers to business startup investment and import substitution — so the government is going to rebuild the Russian economy after coronaries. “Vedomosti” has seen a copy of the plan of action, which the government introduced on 1 June in the Kremlin. The authenticity of the document confirmed the Federal official.
According to participating in the development of a plan of officials, it was clarified by night, and even in the morning on the day of dispatch to the President. On Tuesday Vladimir Putin will discuss the document with Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin.
the Budget support for the economy would cost about 5 trillion rubles. in the form of expenses and lost revenues.
In particular, for social support, the government is going to spend more than 700 billion, to help small and medium business 1.3 trillion, different sectors will be allocated 500 billion, regions 350 billion to 2.2 trillion RUB will make investments in infrastructure, including off-budget sources. In General, “estimate” consists of spending on previously approved aid to the population and business, and a significant part of the costs, for example, purchasing nearly $ 1 trillion in equipment and machinery has already been provided by national projects, but they will pay ahead of schedule. New large-scale measures to support people in this year’s plan is not provided, but assistance the government intends to do more targeted.
the Plan is until the end of 2021, By this time, the Russian economy should begin to grow by 2.5%, should increase real incomes, unemployment to decline to 5%. Economic development Ministry official forecast expects that in 2020 the economy will fall to 5% in 2021 there will be a rebound and GDP will grow by 2.8% in 2022 and 2023. growth will accelerate to 3 and 3.1%, respectively.
to Prevent the restoration of many risks, writes the government: cessation of the employment support measures and the formation of a track overhang of unemployment in the affected sectors, reduced income and effective demand, reduction of investment activity, sharp rise in bad debts.
But government sees in the crisis and opportunity. For example, the development of new forms of employment and learning increases the flexibility of the labour market and education. The transition to remote work and self-isolation has accelerated digitalization. Increased incentives for import substitution and simplification of administrative procedures.
the representative of the Ministry of economic development forwarded the questions of “sheets” in the government, and representatives of government and the first Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov responsible for the preparation of the plan have not answered them.
the Government has proposed to create a social Treasury system, which��Aya will improve the targeting and effectiveness of social support at all levels — Federal, regional and municipal. Recent years, the share of social payments in the incomes of the population exceeds 19%, a maximum in the post-Soviet and Soviet period (Rosstat data available since 1970).
the Rest goes to those who help and don’t need, and share of targeted benefits in the incomes of the poorest people, on average, less than 2%, were evaluated by the experts of the world Bank and research financial Institute of the Ministry of Finance.
to identify those who really need help will be a unified approach to the determination of family composition and income of the people, introduced a method of calculation of average household income. Such a system is already partially working, says a Federal official, most of the payments to families with children up to 16 years (10 000 RUB.) was brought to people in just a day.
the Unemployed (from 1 April to 27 may, the number has increased from 720 000 to 1.9 million people), the government offers to help to find a job faster by making more flexible Labor code. It’s too difficult to part with an employee, and hire him for a short time, complains a businessman from the sphere of public catering, and a growing shadow employment. The government proposes to allow to transfer employees (including civil servants) to remote work, to provide for a minimum hourly rate to hire someone for a short while and part-time, to introduce fixed-term contract of one year which can be renewed.
According to the Institute for social analysis and prediction Ranepa, fully or partially remote work 26% of workers, whereas prior to the pandemic there were only 17%.
the Most expensive measures to support small and medium business was approved previously. Reduction of insurance contributions from 30 to 15% will deprive the budget system 349 billion rubles this year and 496 billion in the next. Tax deferral and “vacation” will cost the budget almost to 180 billion rubles., and the write-off of concessional loans to the budget, according to government estimates, will spend the next year of 155 billion rubles.
of expensive New measures to support small and medium-sized businesses.
Small and medium business promised to extend the moratorium on inspections until the end of 2021., business as a whole — inspections only in the event of a risk of serious violations and the gradual transition to a fully digital workflow supervisors and companies.
the plan is a focus on digitalization — this is what expected from mishustina, when he was appointed Prime Minister. thus, the government is going to launch a system of “single window” for small and medium business, platform for obtaining business licenses and permits, a single newslettering the system in the health sector (including a single digital medical record), to create educational digital platform. Many of these tasks, like the General idea translated to electronic format, the interaction of people and business with the government, the Ministry of communications was offered in early 2010-ies., says a former senior official of the Ministry. With the arrival of the new Minister of communications Maksuta Sadaeva and Prime Minister who for many years have developed public e-services, digitisation of the public sector can greatly accelerate, but it will allow only to make up plans a decade ago and does not provide a technological breakthrough, said the source “Vedomosti”.
Falling demand in the economy the government expects to support investment.
Major projects, including private and public, promised help in the form of agreements on investment protection, simplification of construction procedures and land allocation. Officials are ready to speed up the construction of infrastructure, such as highway the Moscow-Kazan to build for four years, and the Central ring to complete by 2021, the Government is accustomed to large projects and continues to follow this path, including by encouraging developed before the crisis the investment programs of state companies, said the Director of the development Center of the Higher school of Economics Natalia Akindinova, although not all of them adequate to the changed situation, for example, projects in the oil and gas sector was developed with other oil prices. But the recovery in consumer demand could be an incentive for private investment, providing a soft adjustment of the economy to the changing structure of demand, says Akindinova.
But to stimulate investment easier, says the chief Global Markets economist BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov, and not the fact that the stimulation of consumer demand will lead to serious economic results — people are not necessarily going to spend money, especially now, when rather they are trying to save money.
the Most important is not the content of the plan and not even the promised spending, and the effectiveness of the implementation of the planned measures, wrote Tikhomirov in the review: “it is Very important that this crisis has given impetus to the development of new technologies and the restructuring of the Russian economy and not become just another reason for strengthening the role of the state in the economy and the extension of bureaucratic power”.
Elizabeth Bazanova, Philip Sterkin, Svetlana Yastrebova, Anna red
