Gross domestic product fell in April by 12%, reported the Ministry of economic development. The fact of the fall of the economy on the background of the regime of isolation is not surprising, but its scope clearly exceeded the negative expectations. The main contribution to this reduction has made a consumer sector, collapsed due to the regime self-isolation by almost a quarter. Monthly GDP broke the record of statistics established in may 2009 (USD 11.8%). There’s a chance that by the end of the year, GDP will still grow as the recovery in economic activity in the country. But that’s how it is – opinions differ. The Ministry of economic development believes that the decrease for the year will not exceed 5%, independent experts put the figure twice. “MK” has found out the opinion of economists on this score.
Igor NIKOLAEV, Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK:
“Failure of 12% in April, reported the Ministry of economic development – a lot. But I think the real drop was even greater. According to the Ministry, the industry fell by 6.6%, that is not entirely objective. If you evaluate the failure of the economy in the whole year, you will recall that in may, includes one more negative for the GDP factor is the reduction of oil production under OPEC agreement+. The oil industry is 20% of GDP. So in may, the fall of the economy will be no less profound than in April. I do not think that by the end of 2020 we will reach a reading of minus 5-6%, which predict the economic development Ministry and Bank of Russia. Is noticeably worse — minus 10%, and even more. No it is clearly in 2020, the economy will fall harder than in the crisis of 2009, when GDP fell by 7.8%”.
Sergey ZHAVORONKOV, senior researcher, Institute for economic policy. Yegor Gaidar:
“According to the forecasts of the Central Bank by year-end, the economy will fall to 5-6%. But much depends on the actions of the authorities. If all quarantine measures will not be canceled and restrictions will continue to be a lot, with the GDP of the country will be very bad. The economic development depends on how quickly the authorities will understand that all bans are the economy in the negative, the GDP decline will not stop. I think by the end of the year gross domestic product will shrink by 7-8% — more than predicted by the government and the Central Bank”.
Marc GOIKHMAN, chief analyst at “TeleTrade”:
“April took, perhaps, the main impact of coronaries. Significantly decreasing the retail trade. In its composition of non-food goods showed a decrease of 36.7 per cent. Even more disastrous was the situation with paid services — a drop of 37.9%. Manufacturing industry decreased by 10%, in its composition light — by 23.1%, machine building — by 34.3%. May promises to be no less disappointing, because there has been some weakening of the regime “holidays”. But, nevertheless, he most likely will also show a significant drop in GDP in annual terms. In General, the second quarter decline may be 10-10,5%. The third and fourth quarters will give the rate of decline is lower, about 5.5-6.5%, as some recovery in business activity, unless there is a massive “second wave” of the pandemic. Overall, the forecast economic development regarding the GDP decrease of 5% looks very optimistic, in reality, the reduction may be much greater. In any case, Russia’s GDP will fall much stronger than the world. One reason for this — on a much smaller scale financial assistance to sectors of the economy and population to support demand, compared with core countries facing a “pandemic” attacks. This will lead to a very significant fall in real incomes”.
