the adventures of Russian gas in Europe continues. He had only to “Gazprom” to recover raw material supply through the pipeline “Yamal-Europe”, stopped may 25 by Poland, and to return back to the traditional export route, as the transit was again blocked. Experts say not to worry — now the faucet will open and close with surprising speed. Warsaw developed a new scheme of Russian gas supplies offers instead a long-term contract fuel supplies go to purchase transport capacity at the auction. Gazprom has reserved the necessary capacity and is ready to supply Europe with fuel at the alternative branches. However, the presence of the pipelines does not necessarily mean large revenue: the income of “Gazprom”, as experts predict, this year will be reduced threefold. The same fall of budget revenues from the export of “blue fuel”.
the First deliveries of Russian gas pipeline “Yamal-Europe” stayed may 25. This was done in connection with the refusal of Poland to renew a long term contract with our country on the supply and transit of “blue fuel”. Own the energy balance of Warsaw decided to fill by purchasing American LNG. Gazprom had offered to buy transport capacity from the operator of the Polish gas pipeline Gaz-System.
two days later, 27 may, Gazprom said that the transit of fuel on the Polish section of the “Yamal-Europe” was restored and the supply of “blue fuel” of our country on this itinerary will continue in the future. But it was not there. After another day, Poland has routinely blocked his trumpet for Russia.
According to leading analyst of the national energy security Fund Igor Yushkov, the reasons for concern. “Gazprom” has prepared for the need to enter the open market to prolong the transit through Polish territory. In June the power of this section of the pipeline purchased by 93%, and for third quarter — 80%. “17 may, when they ended a long-term contract, and until June 1, with which our company has been able to use the new system to gain access to the Polish gas pipeline system, Gazprom had to sign fixed-term contracts for one day. Because the daily shipments on this route is not always necessary, their short-term interruptions expected,” — says the expert.
after a few days of disruptions in the transit of Russian gas through the pipeline “Yamal-Europe” has to stop. However, in the next few months they should only be expected when a Russian company wants to any particular day to use the services of Polish operator.
At the same time, it is obvious that the position of “Gazprom” in the European market has suffered greatly. For the first two months 2020 export earnings of “Gazprom” amounted to about $6 billion In 2018 over the same period the company earned twice as much. Moreover, the volume of gas exports decreased by a quarter, so the revenue decline was the result not only of the fall in supply.
In General, according to experts, this year Gazprom’s supplies to Europe will fall by 20-30%. At the same time will drop the prices of hydrocarbons. Initially, the group assumed annual fuel cost of $133 per thousand cubic meters, but judging by current dynamics, before the end of the first half of the price of Russian gas exports to Europe will drop to $80-110 per thousand cubic meters. Overall, this year “Gazprom” risk short every fifth dollar.
After mining concern with major losses can be faced and the Russian budget. Last year gas export brought $50 billion to the state Treasury. At the end of this year it could be even $10-15 more modest billion.
However, it is not only export losses of the Russian gas monopoly. Distributed worse that the drop in its profits may affect the plans of gasification of the Russian territory. Now about 70% of the domestic regions, to varying degrees, have access to “the burner”. This year “Gazprom” planned to direct on gasification of the regions of around $400-500 million in foreign Because the direction of the loss of “Gazprom” on the order more, there are fears that the company may try to compensate losses at the expense of the economy at the Russians.
