Maxim, in the Urals, as elsewhere, some businesses and industries affected by the pandemic more than others. Who is the worst?
Maksim kotliarov: the Most affected are those that just stopped in this period, non-food retail, catering, service, entertainment and recreation, transportation. For large post-industrial cities like Ekaterinburg with a huge trade turnover and the number of people employed in this sector – a significant blow. Affected companies focused on import products, especially consumer goods.
Statistics for the second quarter yet, so have yet to assess the impact of the downturn in the metallurgical and mining industry, and in the aspect not only of revenue, but also employment and income of workers. For providers of infrastructure services in terms of reduction of energy consumption by industrial enterprises and increase consumption while reducing the income of people.
Features of this crisis that he provoked a stop or a substantial deceleration of business activity the vast majority of business entities, second, ripped the chain of financial-economic relations, thirdly, destroyed some of the economic patterns to which we are accustomed. For example, the stereotype of the “weak ruble is good for the exporter and budget of our country” is relevant if the foreign counterparty of this exporter is all right. And this is now a problem too.
Stop business activity does not benefit anyone. You can talk about the growth of demand for communications services or online education, but they are dealing with consumers suffering from the effects of the crisis.
Why the blow was so strong?
Maksim kotliarov: My generation in childhood often trained in case of emergencies. Roughly speaking, dropped everything at home, work and study, took the documents and the supply of food and came to the gathering place. If you remove the drama in the form of a possible nuclear catastrophe, that we had practiced the model of action in the case, when everything familiar suddenly stopped, disappeared. The task was not just to survive, but not be savages, vyriausybe pieces of food from others. The Soviet people were prepared for the challenges and took stock.
Model of infinite growth, which we switched over in the 1990s, implies a different approach: the life and work of a person or enterprise is like a loan from yourself from the future. For example, one, dreaming about the car for a long time saving up for it, the other takes the credit. The results are the same at first glance. Actually the thing as the embodiment of labor invested and how acquisition for future works is not the same.
so these do not end up grafted priorities, we engaged in market relations, the essence of which – monetary system that encourages all continuously updated and wanting more for future earnings. However, if in the developed countries, together with a desire for continuous growth and consumption of vaccinated and the need for a set limit of risk assumed, we did not limit himself.
due to the underestimation of risks, many who lost their jobs, did not find the funds for another loan payments?
Maksim kotliarov: on March 11 the teachers and the students dismantled the mortgage problem and talked properly predict your life, family income for 15-20 years. Leaving this session, we didn’t know that the audience will not meet. This is a short case about confidence in the future.
Incorrect on my part of anyone to expose the foolishness of unfettered consumption. Nothing personal, but people got a harsh lesson in the depravity of the model life at the expense of only current receipts.
Now all you can blame the virus, but this could happen at any time with every illness, dismissal, etc. Comes out, people are just not willing to force majeure?
Maksim Kotlyarov the Key problem of our country – the lack of economic thinking and economic education. I’m not talking about the degree and not on courses financial literacy (which is often only taught to borrow rationally). Economics is a field of knowledge about how to meet the needs in a context where resources and opportunities are limited. To think economically – it means to make decisions, balancing costs and benefits. This is actually the science of making informed decisions for life.
Today we passed a Grand master-class called “Stop the economy.” But pay for it differently, and conclusions do everything different. Someone at the first sign of improvement will think about upgrading the car, and someone on the reasonableness of consumption.
Not only citizens, but many successful companies found themselves in a difficult financial situation without reserves. It turns out that in the country there is no culture of accumulation itself?
Maksim Kotlyarov It’s like to argue about the absence in Russia of a culture of drinking. Someone has it, someone not. The trouble is that there is no concept of national level in this field.
as for companies that, in the words of the classics, “the company is a projection of the personality of the head”. Some owners of fitness clubs within a week after the closure screamed about the collapse, and reduced the staff, omitting, as in prosperous times was taken from this plant, pocket personal consumption. Again, do not dare to generalize, but all, without exception, was a lesson about the need to have a plan “B”. Just someone paid for this lesson a private bankruptcy.
What is the main conclusion should make a society after ?
Maksim kotliarov: This event gave us a unique opportunity to think about the system in which we live. The situation is akin to the one that we drove and traveled by car, and we were deprived of rights. And we before you put the car in the garage, found in the glove compartment of the manual. It turns out that there are rules and laws, how the system works! Currently we are involved in a big game without knowing the rules. We need to think about their place and role in this game and only after that to run out of quarantine and included in the new race. The first key is to rethink – to think about how to work the monetary system.
This is a serious body of knowledge if it’s really necessary to delve into each?
Maksim Kotlyarov Take note of the Bank of Russia of any value and read what is written on both sides. The word “money” you will not find it. What we called money, our digitized credibility of the Central Bank and the confidence that others in the chain of relationships will take these numbers on paper in exchange for something useful for us. If someone of you has opened a public balance sheet of the Bank of Russia, you would see that cash money is the liabilities of the Central Bank, his debts. To produce the medium of exchange it can only under our demand: someone is a commercial Bank, enterprise, people must take the money, with interest. If ten people give 10 rubles under 10 percent, they should return 110. But in this microeconomics, consisting of 10 people, in circulation, only $ 100. Consequently, some of them need to go bankrupt or to borrow more in order to pay. The way it works. The trouble is that our economy is determined by monetary system, based on the inability of stops: formed a model based on competition, not on cooperation. Virus gave a lesson, what happens when you slow down.
you need to understand and the ordinary citizen, and a businessman?
Maksim Kotlyarov If you consciously continue the race, not to get into the number of unsuccessful, your mission in life – to fulfill his and others ‘ debts. The hardships of labor will be offset by the illusion of progress, part of which you take a loan from your future. Bank business loans – is, in fact, sell you ideas about yourself.
is There a chance that the system would change, maybe just due to the pandemic?
Maksim kotliarov: no matter How tragic the medical aspect of this crisis, no revolution in the monetary world, he will not produce. The Central banks of all countries will flood the fires of the new emission, reducing interest rates, and in fact, just restart the eternal run.
the Chance to make a revolution is only at each individual and only in relation to the gue�� development and behavior. Think about what unique competencies do you possess? Someone who just sells ordinary skills in the labor market is compelled to read the next predictions about the demand for or the futility of the professions and anything to prepare. But if you have the chance to do something most can not, will open a new life. Coming era of uniqueness, and the crisis only accelerated its arrival.
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