They were small.
the Emergence of intelligent life on Earth could be a happy accident.
To such conclusion came the astronomer David Kipping of Columbia University in a paper published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
most Often, estimating the chances of certain events, statisticians use a method of frequency probability. For example, it is used for weather forecasts or the results of the vote. Knowing the data exit polls, it is possible to make approximate conclusions about the election results.
But Kipping turned to an alternative method, known as Bayesian analysis. It is based on the subjective interpretation of probability. A classic example of Bayesian inference — a vase with cookies. In one vase is 10 chocolate and 30 simple cookie, and the second for 20 each. The person chooses a cookie, and it is simple. What are the chances that the person took a cookie from the first vase?
Knowing that the first vase a simple cookie was more we intuitively think it is more likely. Bayes ‘ formula is mathematically confirmed. But if we did not know the exact contents of the vases, we would rate the chances of a person to reach out to one or another vase of equally. Bayesian analysis is used in medical diagnostics, genetics, Economics, space exploration and other fields.
Kipping studied the “bowl of cookies” Land: it reviewed data about how the Earth formed, how many years have passed after its cooling to the appearance of liquid water and the emergence of basic life and how much from the single — celled organisms to the emergence of intelligent life.
Anna Lysenko
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