About the what professions people will be at risk because of the crisis caused by a coronavirus, wrote a lot. Alexandr, who will have the hardest?
Alexander Safonov: the biggest threat of rising unemployment associated with the sectors that provided services to the population. That is, working exclusively on the demand of the population. Mostly on the middle class.
This is, first and foremost caterers. The Association of restaurateurs of Russia has made the forecast that up to 71 per cent of cafés and restaurants may not return to the market due to the current circumstances. It is clear that this is an extreme assessment. But to assume that 40 percent of the restaurants may be closed, it’s real.
And, most likely, will begin to close the points that have been associated with large employment. It’s not the best kebab houses, where one person and at the plate, and on hand. Not fast food. And cafes and restaurants, that is, in the first place, behind employment will remain waiters, kitchen staff, maintenance workers.
the Next segment connected with sport. This fitness centers. They some time hold out on the already sold tickets. But by the end of the year we can assume that the number of people who work there, will be reduced by 30 percent, at least. And it is 200 thousand people.
We will see that this topic will spread and cultural events. Less people will spend money on cinemas and theatres. So here, the question of the employment of actors, especially those who work in private organizations. Therefore, there is a possible reduction. But on a smaller scale than in the area of mass recreation and sports.
must Admit I was thinking in the first place you put the trade.
Alexander Safonov: Certainly, we will see a reduction of employment in the retail sector. But not on this scale.
If the effective demand of the population will shrink by a projected 19 percent, then, of course, have to optimize warehouse space, sales areas, to reduce staff. But it does not affect the entire industry. Mostly, the blow will have on a major network companies related to the sale of long-term goods such as furniture, electronics. Will also affect the clothing trade. They will have very strong competition from online platforms. Internet Commerce is much cheaper, in terms of logistics, personnel. According to preliminary estimates, may be out of employment, 10 percent of workers offline trade.
There is another sector at risk, which today almost does not speak. Private housing, for example, country houses. In this sector also employs many people, most unfortunately, they work for gray. But to suffer from unemployment will be like all the others.
Experts still predict a serious unemployment among taxi��comrade.
Alexander Safonov: the Employees of all transport services – at risk, not only taxi drivers.
Download transport always corresponds to the volume of production and turnover. If they are reduced, and transport services are reduced. Primarily road transportation.
of Course, we are faced with the fact that a significant proportion of citizens will be unemployed.
For the labour market will be particularly sensitive to the decline of jobs for taxi drivers. Before the pandemic in a stable economy and gradual increase of incomes of taxi played the role of a damper. It helped to accumulate the unemployed who temporarily is able to find work and earnings while looking for a place for the specialty. Or at the time of learning, for example, to improve the skills. Now this damper will not.
Well, at least for couriers you can be happy? They are now at the peak of demand.
Alexander Safonov: be Happy for them now. Request employers to couriers, only due to quarantine actions.
as soon As it disappears, will subside the need for delivery of Lunches, breakfasts and dinners. Also, for this employment will push declining consumer demand. The falling incomes of the population will lead to the fact that less people will order goods at home. So I’m very pessimistic look at the future prospects of the couriers.
Alexander Lvovich, and now what the statistics on unemployment? How she grew up?
Alexander Safonov: Officially registered unemployment rate increased, according to the Ministry, up to 1.7 million people. At the end of March, this figure was less than a million.
the Overall unemployment rate is now up to 5-5,5 million people. At the end of the first quarter to 3.5 million.
But there are administrative leave when the employee is not dismissed, but it does not work and does not receive a salary. This figure is no less than in previous years. Some estimates show that it is 1.2 million, but likely in the range of two million.
And how long all this shakes on the labour market will last?
Alexander Safonov: unfortunately, I do not get to slip through the peak of unemployment this year. But by the end of 2021 we have a chance to return to the indicators that were before the crisis caused by the pandemic.
Given the social assistance that the government provides to the Russians, this way to the labor market recovery will not be tragic. Difficult – Yes, of course! But not hopeless.
read more in the next publications of “Rossiyskaya Gazeta”.
In previous publications it was about how to behave, losing a job, as well as two scenarios ��OST unemployment and wage cuts. And another expert called the most popular profession after the pandemic in the coming years.
All the materials of the story “COVID-19. We can do it!” read the .
