In the coming years Russia will face the strongest over the last decade the economic crisis. Writes about this edition of Bloomberg, based on the research of analysts at energy centre SKOLKOVO.
the Deterioration of the economic situation in the country is caused primarily by falling oil prices, as the country’s budget by almost half consists of revenues from energy exports. Another negative will be the coronavirus pandemic, where the demand for oil in the world will fall faster.
According to experts, last year may become the year when the demand for “black gold” was at its peak. Meanwhile, the Russian government in March this year predicted that demand for oil will peak only after 15 years.
Analysts believe that if the Russian economy in the coming years will remain dependent on resource exports, it will lead to the fact that revenues to the Treasury will “fall dramatically”. In this case, GDP will slow to 0.8% for the next 20 years. This significantly lower figure compared to the forecast of Ministry of economic development: the Ministry is expected in the next three years, an increase of 2.8-3.1 percent.
According to the forecast socially-economic development of Russia, which was previously prepared in the med, in the next three years indicators GDP, industrial production, incomes will fall significantly, and the budget of the country for the first time in a few years will become scarce. In this case a quick exit of the domestic economy from the crisis in the Department do not wait. According to the MAYOR, the recovery will take years.
see also: the Main mistake of the bailout of the Russian economy: the disregard for small business
