“In terms of the predominance of further disinflationary trends the Central Bank has room for further easing of monetary policy”, – said Nabiullina. Thus, according to the head of the Central Bank, as output from the calculations the very low monthly values of the summer and autumn of 2019, the annual inflation rate is likely to increase. But last week the inflation was near zero, and annual inflation in the last two weeks has been stable just above 3%, said the head of the Bank of Russia. According to her, to such effect, including in the past contributed to the strengthening of the ruble against the increased oil prices.
These price dynamics untie the hands of the Central Bank for the significant reduction in the key rate at the next meeting of the Board of Directors on June 19. “The probability of a rate cut by one percentage point “on the table”, but it’s still below 100%,” – said Nabiullina, answering the question of “the Russian newspaper”. Now the key rate of the Bank of Russia is 5.5% per annum. To this level, the Central Bank lowered it by 0.5 percentage points in late April and made that will continue to reduce it further.
the Peak annual inflation rate of 2020 will have for the summer, waiting in the Bank. At the current forecast of the Bank of Russia, the inflation rate at the end of 2020 could reach 3.8 to 4.8% and will remain at the target level of “close to 4%” in the following years. Without conducting loose monetary policy, which has now passed, the Bank of Russia, inflation in 2021 and 2022 may be below 4%, Nabiullina admitted. In the earlier socio-economic forecast of economic development States that in 2020 the level of inflation will be 4% and will remain there in the years 2021-2023.
