the deterioration of the situation in the Russian economy due pandemic coronavirus and the collapse in oil prices will lead to an acceleration of migration within the country in the next two years, the report says Moody’s. Most of the working population will tend to major economic centers, due what is income in the less developed regions will decline.
First of all, the Exodus will affect regions:
the most to lose population at risk of Omsk oblast, Chuvashia, Samara oblast, Bashkortostan and Nizhny Novgorod oblast, predicts Moody’s. Among the regions affected by migration, the Agency also called Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, Komi Republic and Krasnoyarsk territory.
According to experts, these regions is likely to solve the problem by tightening control over rising costs.
According to Moody’s forecasts, Russia’s GDP in 2020 will decrease by 5.5% (compared with growth of 1.2% in 2019), and in 2021 will increase by 2.2%. The estimates coincide with the official forecasts of the government — Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov also evaluated the decline in the 5% of GDP, and the Central Bank forecast a fall of 4-6%. Siluanov also waiting for the deficit to 4% of GDP, the forecast of the Central Bank was higher at 5-6% of GDP in 2020.
