What to expect from the ruble on, and that was a fucking faster out of the crisis after the pandemic, “the Russian newspaper” said Anna Bodrova, senior analyst at IAC “Alpari”.
– Monday, – according to experts, will become a point of release from quarantine and regime isolation. Many regional programmes in Russia will earn this week. Some European countries have also created a step-by-step program.
for Example, Austria is here opened restaurants, museums and libraries. But the authorities intend to keep the ban on mass events in action until at least the end of the summer. Most likely, Germany will go the same path, and in France will be watching closely so that the population is not gathered in groups, because the French are big fans of companies like the Italians and the Spanish.
is it Possible to determine the shortlist of States that are more prosperous others will emerge from the crisis? Let’s try.
first to emerge from the crisis, it is necessary first to dive into it. Says an old English proverb, no need to cross the bridge before reaching it. Many of the world powers are in a phase of immersion in the crisis, and the Eurozone in particular. According to American statistics, there is not all rosy, and Asia, as it appeared in the virus area before anyone else, it demonstrates that the restoration will be problematic and inconsistent.
second, the structure of economies and population density are different everywhere. Different and the initial state of the economic systems before and coronavirus pandemic. So we can expect that Italy will emerge from the crisis is long and sad, because until COVID-19 there was a big problem with the budget and the public debt, and the virus only worsened the state of public finances.
While very approximate TOP-3 countries which can get out of the crisis faster than the others, as follows: China, USA, Germany.
go On UK, Japan, Australia. Is taken into account not only the base state of the economies and their capacity for rapid mobilization, but also packages of incentives, and comprehensive support of the authorities of not only business but also the public. Russia in this list is hardly included in the top ten.
the Ruble, of course, be sensitive to the recovery of the global economy – says Anna Bodrov. – If in the world at the same time expressed interest in the risk that the ruble will only get better. But something dramatically positive is there to wait still not worth it. The Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Finance has allowed the Russian currency to devalue to the extent that it is convenient for the budget. Too strong ruble in the next 12 months definitely will not.
the process of recovery of the Russian economy, if to be based on the completely sterile conditions with the release of austerity since June, and without the second wave of the virus is to two years. This means that the ruble is “about 75” per dollar with us for a long time.
From the beginning of 2020 and on may 18 “the greenback” rose against the ruble by 20 percent. In the next days “buffeting” of the dollar in the range of 73-75 rubles will remain in force. Broader horizon – until the end of may, for example, involves fluctuations in the range of 72.50 per person-76,50 ruble. The Euro, still kept in the corridor 79-82 rubles, where he belongs before the end of spring.
