About a million small and medium businesses can leave the market or, simply, collapse to the end of the summer of the current year. Such information was published by “OPORA Russia”. Earlier, in the course of sociological research revealed that a third of respondents see the threat of collapse of their business this fall – after the moratorium on bankruptcy will be canceled. According to the Center for strategic research, the greatest threat looms over the companies operating in the fields of non-food trade and services.
In Russia, according to official statistics, only about 5.5 million small and medium enterprises (including individual entrepreneurs). By the end of this year, a large part of them do not reach: this is evidenced by recent studies and polls of entrepreneurs. Only the numbers vary a lot: some “sentences to death” 10% of all small and medium-sized business, someone is over 30%. For example, according to a survey by Ernst & Young, in Russia every tenth company is on the verge of closure, and over half (51%) will be able to hold no more than one to three months in the current regime of restrictions, imposed because of the pandemic.
this is Due to the fact that the suspension of operations in April, has put many organizations in a difficult situation — firms have no working capital, financial reserves are being rapidly depleted.
the biggest losses, as shown by the surveys of entrepreneurs, incurred by the enterprises of hotel business, tourism, services, fitness. “As soon as in October will be charged imposed by the government a veto on the bankruptcy, to cease operations, about 10% of the enterprises of small, medium and microbuses – those who have not enough money to survive a difficult period,” — said the head of analytical Department AMarkets Artem Deev. The expert believes that the support of the government — a deferral of tax payments, direct financial assistance for payment of wages – will help most organizations to return to work and to restore momentum in the next year.
the Expert refers to the experience of “peace-time”: if closed cafe, restaurant or beauty salon, it is very often in the same place at once opened a similar enterprise, often with the same employees and owners. So bankruptcy is not always closing and laying people off. Very often it means in Russia a change of owners and the name of the company.
However, experts predict the growth of the global market of mergers and acquisitions since July. Surviving during a pandemic, the company will start mass buying up of bankrupt, which would multiply at about the same as the number of infections in April.
to Measure the number of enterprises the economy of Russia is wrong because the contribution of each enterprise in the economic leaderness of a particular region of the country are different, says Alexander Razuvayev, the head of IAC “Alpari”. Therefore, the expert believes that it is more correct to consider the coming damage is not the number of companies left the market, and a reduction in gross domestic product.
“According to my pessimistic that the country will miss 3-4% of GDP in 2020. Will rise in the unemployment rate, but it will resolve in the current year, he believes. — The demand for restaurant services, as well as companies in the beauty industry and entertainment are always stable. In the resort and tourist centers of Russia by the beginning of July will recover the flow of tourists. And together all relevant infrastructure”.
Despite the difference in the estimates of the respondents “MK” experts agree that many companies from the service sector, consumer sector, entertainment and entertainment shop may not survive the impact of the pandemic. At the same time, they are convinced that “landscape after battle” does not resemble a desert. The demand in these “popular” sectors are always available. Therefore, in the place of the bankrupt will come from other players – those lucky enough to survive the period of the pandemic with less loss, or even without them. Well, then it is for the survivors and the newcomers will be a question of profitability in the new, postcoronary conditions. Cinemas and theatres can raise the price tag on 10-20%, and cafes and restaurants, for example, reduce the serving sizes of the dishes, not to raise the price tag. Everyone will survive on its own.
