One of the former Prime Ministers of Russia has sent to me on the phone funny clip: in light of the awesome cartoon cat rides in the car and laughing like crazy. It was entitled: “the First walk after quarantine.” Had a good laugh, I realized that the message of my counterparts was not only a joke. Seemed on the horizon is the imminent release of the status of restrictive measures will bring to the citizens of not only joy and laughter. The release from quarantine will be long, painful and most likely not final. It may well be that in coming years our life will be subordinated to the depressed rhythm: the abolition of restrictive measures — the increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus — the introduction of a new set of constraints.
Introduced in Moscow in late March, the regime of universal isolation and agony our eyes is transformed into fiction. Normality ( or rather, the abnormalities in the form familiar to us until recently traffic jams) have not yet returned. But observed in the beginning of the isolation of a fabulous painting like a completely empty Garden ring is also gone. In the past in the Russian capital will soon begin to leave and formal restrictive measures. At the level of official statements and semi-official conversations is motivated by the readiness of the health system to receive a large number of patients with the coronavirus, the need to give “breathe” the economy and the inability to continue to keep people locked up. But in addition to these three reasons, there is a fourth reason, which is not hidden, but not particularly emphasized. More and more experts come to a disappointing conclusion: coronavirus “will refuse” to go beyond 2020, and will remain with us for a longer period.
Virologists-lovers, in which, due to the need have become very many Russian citizens continue to talk about the coronavirus using the terms “peak”, “plateau” and “decline”. But in the circles of experts without the quotes recently sounds more scientific-sounding word — soliton. According to the definition from the dictionary, the soliton is ” structurally stable solitary wave propagating in a nonlinear medium. Solitons behave like particles when interacting with each other or with some other disturbances they do not break, but continue to move while retaining its structure is not changed.” As people with humanitarian education like me won’t understand this definition, I will give a good example. One type of soliton is a tsunami — a giant wave that sweeps away everything in its path.
What does all this have to do with the coronavirus? And that’s what. According to researchers at the University of Minnesota, referenced in the newspaper “new York times”, the term “withaliton” best describes how likely will things will behave coronavirus. According to these forecasts: “We must be ready, at least for another 18-24 months significant activity kovid-19 hotbeds of the epidemics that periodically appear in different geographical areas.” Of course, any predictions in the current situation — it attempts to illuminate the pitch darkness of the night sky with a lighter. But let’s for the sake of purity of experiment we will argue in the logic of “we must hope for the best and prepare for the worst”. What this logic leads with regard to Russia and its capital?
In my opinion, such conclusions a few. The quarantine will be lifted — and, with very high probability, will be introduced again. And then again repealed and re-introduced. This long-term forecast. But looks like the short-term. So how about a final victory over the coronavirus in the near future may not be out of the question, we do not expect an avalanche of consumer recovery and economic activity after the gradual lifting of the current portion of restrictions. For example, in China, where such cancellation has long been a fact, many large shopping centers, according to witnesses, are still half-empty. Of course, Russians are not Chinese. We have our own pride and its own rules, the meaning of which boils down to no regulation at all. But just as the Chinese and all the rest of us will have to adjust to life in a very much extended in time of emergency.
I am Sure that such device is possible. I am sure that it will give impetus to a very important technological discoveries and breakthroughs ( Hello, Nikita Mikhalkov and bill gates). But adaptation to new realities will be very painful in all senses. We will not therefore indulge in excessive euphoria due to emergency cancellation introduced at the end of March restrictions. It is only “the postman always rings twice”. Coronavirus can “call” thrice, and four times and many times.
