The past week the ruble completes a small weakening of the positions. At the end of trading on Friday the dollar on the Moscow exchange was fixed near the level 73,63 RUB/$, which is 22 kopecks. above the closing of previous week. Pressure on the foreign exchange market has increased confrontation between Washington and Beijing that could slow the global recovery and lead to stronger weakening of the currencies of developing countries. Support the Russian currency has recovery in oil prices and currency sales by the Central Bank.
* The consensus forecast was calculated as the arithmetic mean of the forecasts analitikuri the absence of a new downward movements in oil, the ruble, most likely, will manage to keep stabilnosti ends the week near the levels 73,5 RUB/$. Oil is retained at levels above 31$, the price growth of the debt market of the Russian Federation continues on the investors ‘ expectations of further active reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank. Despite the decline in the volume of currency sales by the Bank of Russia manages the ruble to maintain stability. Expect that next week the ruble will be formed in the range of 73-74,5 rubles/$. In our view, the Russian debt market remains potential for continued growth, which may provide some support for the ruble exchange rate. In the absence of a new downward movements in oil, the ruble, most likely, will manage to maintain stability.The pressure on the national currency may have reduced demand for riskier activiv the upcoming weeks, the Russian ruble will move to the contradictory external background. On the one hand, he can get the support of the energy market, where the nearest futures for oil of mark Brent against the background of improvements in expectations for demand and, consequently, the balance of supply and demand will attempt recovery in the range of $32-35 per barrel. On the other hand, the pressure on the national currency may have reduced demand for risky assets, facilitated the growth of tension in relations between the US and China, as well as weak macroeconomic statistics. This factor will exert pressure on the EM currencies, which will lead to the leveling of the positive effects of trends in the energy market on the ruble. From internal factors highlight the decline in sales of foreign currency by the Central Bank, as well as the proximity of the peak of tax payments. Consequently, the most likely continuation of the movement of the pair dollar/ruble in the range of 73-75 rubles, which she konsolidiruyutsya on April 23. Note that the output of the current corridor can give the direction of further medium-term evolution of the American currency.The danger is the possible strengthening of the dollar against the backdrop of another geopolitical escalation between the US and Kerroksista currency continues supporting��tsya two key factors: the sale of foreign currency in the framework of fiscal rules and expectations of more aggressive Central Bank towards monetary policy easing. Demand at auctions of the Ministry of Finance resumed, reflecting the growing interest of not only local investors, but also non-residents. The price of oil is uncertain hold above $30 per barrel, but their fixation on the current values form the positive preconditions for the ruble. A danger for the Russian currency represents a possible strengthening of the dollar against the backdrop of another geopolitical escalation between the US and China, and the rhetoric of the fed’s negative attitude towards negative interest rates.Local support for Russian ruble are the sale of foreign currency by the Bank Asciicircum increase in the price of oil ends the third week in a row that should be noted as a positive trend. At this time, oil production rose to levels of $32 a barrel. This fact contributed by the Saudi Arabia decision to reduce oil production. The increase in oil prices simultaneously with the increase in investors ‘ appetite for risk has led to the fact that the Russian national currency continued to strengthen. Local support for Russian ruble are the sale of foreign currency by the Bank of Russia. Another factor worth mentioning, is starting on Friday, may 15, the next fiscal period. Investors continue to consider the likelihood of risks for global markets associated with the introduction of the gradual weakening of quarantine in different countries.
