This will happen if the authorities of the African countries to strengthen measures to combat the spread of COVID-19.
TASS, may 15. About a quarter of a billion people in Africa can be infected with a new type of coronavirus, and 180 thousand of them will become victims COVID-19, if the governments of all countries of the continent will not tighten quarantine measures. About the epidemiologists of the world health organization (who) write in the scientific journal BMJ Global Health.
“If the situation does not change for the first year after the beginning of the epidemic, a coronavirus, a new type will be infected every fourth person in the who African region, where more than a billion people. Approximately 37 million of them will show symptoms, and another 4.6 million need to be put in the hospital,” the scientists write.
coronavirus Pandemic of a new type began at the end of last year in China. Since the beginning of the pandemic coronavirus in the world were infected with more than 4.4 million people, more than 300 thousand died, and most of the victims of infections and while it is necessary for the United States and Europe.
in the first weeks after the opening of the coronavirus, many doctors and epidemiologists were afraid of what would happen after its penetration in the developing countries of Asia and Africa. The fact that health systems of these countries are underdeveloped, and resources for proper organization of quarantine measures they have enough. Scientists had feared that getting SARS-CoV-2 in their territory can cause massive outbreaks. Until recently, however, this was avoided.
who & Institute of simulation sickness, created with funding from the bill and Melinda gates Foundation, has tried to estimate how much the epidemic coronavirus infection will affect African countries, if their governments will not change the current approach to combating the virus. In their study, the researchers focused on the 47 States that are within the African region the who definition.
the Researchers note that now the virus has hit 45 countries in Africa and is spreading rapidly around their territory. Scientists have tried to calculate how the situation will change over the next 12 months. They were based on the known characteristics of the development of infections in Africa, as well as data on how fast it is now increasing the number of carriers of SARS-CoV-2 to other countries.
the Calculations showed that in Africa, the virus will spread more slowly due that the population density there is less and interregional contacts less likely to happen. The virus will stay in its territory for much longer than in the US and Europe. In General, carriers of SARS-CoV-2 may be about 250 million Africans, and the total number of victims of the virus, according to the simulation scientists, will approach $ 180 thousand.
quantitative about��wear will be most strongly affected by Nigeria, Algeria and South Africa, which are characterized by high population density and a large number of residents. The highest proportion of the infected will be on the island of Mauritius, the Seychelles, and Equatorial Guinea.
“the Local health system, given the existing load on them, not ready for the epidemic SARS-CoV-2. Countries in the who African region now need to add to the main hospital for more hospital beds to be prepared for the fact that the coronavirus spread quickly on their territory”, — summed up the scientists.
