President of the United States Donald trump is very harsh comments about trade deal with China, saying that even a hundred trade deals will not be able to make it up China (probably meant the spread of coronavirus, which States accuses China), the analysts of “Nordea-Bank” Grigory Zhirnov and Tatiana Evdokimova. In addition, there are more reports about possible retaliatory actions of the PRC in the case of sanctions against China by the US. According to Zhirnov and Evdokimova, tensions between the two countries will from time to time to put pressure on the whole unit of the risky asset, which includes the ruble.
the President of the Federal reserve system (FRS) Jerome Powell also did not add optimism to market participants, since it reported high uncertainty of the Outlook for the U.S. economy in a pandemic, but also noted that risks of further slowdown in the US remain elevated. While Powell reiterated that the fed did not see the benefit in negative rates. However, the market based on the futures, still expects to see U.S. interest rates below zero in the second half of the year, the analysts of “Nordea Bank”.
According to Zhirnov and Yevdokimova, the main risk for the ruble in the second half of may is the deterioration of sentiment on global platforms in the case of a new surge in the incidence on the background of easing restrictions in several countries. Against the background of stable oil prices, the strengthening of the Russian currency may contribute to the increased interest of foreign investors to Russian assets on the background of growing expectations of monetary easing by the Bank of Russia, says the head of analytical Department of Bank “St.-Petersburg” Andrey Kadulin. At least in the next week there is no reason to exit the course from a range of 73-75 rubles per dollar, he predicted.
